Interesting...
 

Germany and Japan.

Iraq and North Korea.

Similarities?

I can just picture it... Sod Him, He's Insane is on the phone with Him Looney...
Looney. Listen buddy. I'm in some deep do do and need you to do something for me.

How can I help, Insane? And what do I get out of it?

Well. I want you to start up your nuclear program.

WHAT!? What about the USA and the UN.

Ba humbug. They are pathetic. Just look how I have had them running around for ages. Anyway. Start it up. They will be distracted by you.

And what do we get out of it?

Apart from you actually having some nukes now, *I* will buy some off of you. Name your price.

Hmm. I'll have to think it over.

Of course. I wouldn't have it any other way. But remember. If you do nothing before the US comes after my butt, the deal is off.

Well in that case. Consider it done. I shall start "Operation Annoying Gnat" A.S.A.P. Ciao.

Meanwhile back in the Whitehouse...

Col? Rummy? Conny? Listen up. We need a full set of plans and backup plans, and backup backup plans for dealing with Looney over in North Korea. And keep this super hush hush okay gang. Not a peep out of any of you. We want the media and everyone to think we aren't doing anything about North Korea except ignoring them. That way, they won't see us coming.

And when we do move stuff around, make sure it serves a dual purpose - to mis-direct as well as be something we need anyway. Like, when the time is right, take some bombers of to Guam... but only while we similtaneously do stuff elsewhere. That way, everyone will be looking at Guam and not where the real important stuff is going on.

Okay. get to it and let me know when you've got your plans and triple backups ready.


While all this is going on, leftists tied to and sponsored by Iraq/AlQaeda- in a filtered and hard to trace kind of way - convince a bunch of dupes and school kids to hold anti-war marches all over the world.

Of course, they make sure to get pro-abortionists to be against all the babies that will die should a war break out. They do this to show us how stupid the marchers are. But the media doesn't get the joke.

On the other side of the pond...

Blair tries in vain to talk sense into schoolies and others. Never realizing that no-one is yet to change their mind on this since the beginning. Those who were anti-war are still anti-war and will always be anti-war no matter what. It's like those who believe the shroud of turin is real despite the overwhelming evidence it was faked (different size front and back images, head that doesn't sit right, material not as old as should be, owned by people who employed the great artist who knew how to put images into things without painting, etc., etc.)

And down the bottom of the pond... in out of the way Australia... more dopey school kids march to the sound of their teachers and parents brainwashed drums. Being anti-WhateverIsInVogueThisWeek without offering a viable alternative.

And in France, little old Jaques - who once sold a nuclear reactor to Iraq! - says the same thing he said four years ago... we must give them more time.

Man. You couldn't write a script with so much stuff in it.

Michael Ross

Re: Advice from the Neanderthal Man
 

Ever notice that, despite all of the pirating of
music that goes on in Asia, they're always 10 or 15
years "behind" the U.S. in what's popular?

Also, Japan and some European countries seem to
be good markets for U.S. actors who decide to cut
an "album" (wow, does that sound antiquated or what?).

For example, David Hasselhoff and Alyssa Milano both
had quite of bit of musical success in those markets
in the 1990's. And, I just read today that Jennifer
Love Hewitt is quite popular "over there" and has
just released her 4th album!

But, here in the States -- Jennifer Love sings?
What, you mean like at parties 'n stuff?

Just an observation...

Chris

P.S. I liked Swing Out Sister, too. ;->

> There's a 1980s band I kind of like, their
> name is "Swing Out Sister". They
> had a big hit in the late 1980s with a very
> upbeat song - "Breakout".
> Recently, I decided to look them up online -
> are they still around?

> I got a shock. They are originally from the
> UK, but NONE OF THEIR RECENT ALBUMS ARE
> AVAILABLE IN THE UK (or in the USA or
> Australia for that matter). Guess where they
> are available?

> Japan! Swing Out Sister are VERY BIG in
> Japan!

> What they found was that, their sales in the
> UK and elsewhere dried up. But in Japan -
> their fortunes got higher.

> Nowadays, Swing Out Sister focus on the
> Japanese market - and do very well there.
> Even though they are a British pop group,
> and all their songs are in English!

> Of course, they could have stayed in the UK.
> They could have stopped the pop music game,
> and gone into a different business.
> Perfectly legitimate. But sometimes, if
> you've mastered one thing, it's good to
> stick to what you're good at (and what you
> enjoy).

Re: Advice from the Neanderthal Man
 

Hey Dien:

Amazon has a load of Swing Out Sister albums for sale...

> Hi Michael,

> You may be right. There are many ways to
> profit, even if stocks are going down....

> Some react by buying gold. Others will look
> to buying property. Others may buy bonds.
> And others will short-sell.

> I'm no expert on these other things,
> though....

> It's perfectly legitimate to move your
> investment activities to elsewhere when
> things dry up somewhere else.

> It's like business. If people don't want to
> buy your gizmos in Lapland, sell them in
> Siberia. (Well, you know what I mean.)

> There's a 1980s band I kind of like, their
> name is "Swing Out Sister". They
> had a big hit in the late 1980s with a very
> upbeat song - "Breakout".
> Recently, I decided to look them up online -
> are they still around?

> I got a shock. They are originally from the
> UK, but NONE OF THEIR RECENT ALBUMS ARE
> AVAILABLE IN THE UK (or in the USA or
> Australia for that matter). Guess where they
> are available?

> Japan! Swing Out Sister are VERY BIG in
> Japan!

> What they found was that, their sales in the
> UK and elsewhere dried up. But in Japan -
> their fortunes got higher.

> Nowadays, Swing Out Sister focus on the
> Japanese market - and do very well there.
> Even though they are a British pop group,
> and all their songs are in English!

> Of course, they could have stayed in the UK.
> They could have stopped the pop music game,
> and gone into a different business.
> Perfectly legitimate. But sometimes, if
> you've mastered one thing, it's good to
> stick to what you're good at (and what you
> enjoy).

> Of course, investing in other countries
> doesn't mean you CAN'T do all these other
> things - short selling, buying gold,
> property, etc.

> Thanks, though - you made a good point. :)

> Dien Rice
> (there's a Neanderthal Man in here
> struggling to get out!)

Winning is usually just the refusal to defeat yourself [DNO]
 

dno
> Air Supply are also BIG in Japan and some
> other Asian nations.

> I understand the point you are making, using
> Swing Out Sister as an example.

> But you're talking about SELLING.

> INVESTING in stocks is not selling.

> Trying to find under valued stocks is not
> playing a monotonous-sounding musical piece
> on the radio.

> And it appears that no matter what the
> economy is doing, there are certain
> industries that always make money and
> survive.

> Entertainment is one - even though sales may
> drop, they don't disappear entirely.
> Entertainers can still make a VERY good
> living.

> Food. Shelter. These are items that MUST be
> bought. People NEED them.

> People don't NEED to invest in the stock
> market.

> Certain stockmarket investing
> "options" may be more
> "secure" during economic hardship
> - such as Gold which you mentioned. And if
> that is the case, then it would be a prudent
> thing to LEARN about these.

> Instead of looking for another pond to fish
> in, why not learn the various methods you
> can use to catch the different fish in the
> pond you are already fishing in?

> Because maybe, just maybe, you might not
> ever find your other pond. Or if you find it
> you discover you aren't allowed to fish in
> it.

> I'm not saying to not look for the other
> places to invest. Just saying to Cover Your
> Downsides.

> Michael Ross

A question(s)
 

"Although I wouldn't want my money in the US market after around 2008 (or probably even earlier)..."

Why is that?

Here's what I am thinking...

Pull out just before 2008. Watch the stock price drop and then buy up again.

If you are buying and holding for long term, does it really matter that much what the stock will do in the short term?

I know you don't want to lose a whole bunch of value for nothing - which is why I said to sell just before. But once the stock goes down, doesn't that mean there will be a lot of bargains to be had?

And the stock going down doesn't necessarily mean the underlying business is buggered, does it?

I mean... coke's price might drop but that's not going to stop people buying coke, is it?

And wouldn't the same logic then apply to the other stocks?

I don't know. That's why I am asking.

Michael Ross

A possible way to predict the (general) future of the stock market index...
 

> "Although I wouldn't want my money in
> the US market after around 2008 (or probably
> even earlier)..." Why is that?

> Here's what I am thinking...

> Pull out just before 2008. Watch the stock
> price drop and then buy up again.

> If you are buying and holding for long term,
> does it really matter that much what the
> stock will do in the short term?

Hi Michael,

I'm following the model proposed by Harry S. Dent.... You can read more about it by clicking here....

If you click on the little graph on that page, you can see a larger version. This graph gives a prediction for how the US economy will go, based on demographics (in particular, from the birth rate, shifted by 46.5 years).

(The age of 46.5 years is used, since it approximates the age of peak spending.... At around that age, people are spending the most that they do in their lives. That's partly because as well as spending on themselves, they're also spending for their teenage kids.)

The red bar graph is from birth rates, and the yellow line is the Down Jones index (adjusted for inflation). You can see that the birth rates, shifted by 46.5 years, gives a reasonable prediction of the Dow Jones index....

According to this graph, after around 2008 the Dow Jones should start plunging. Unfortunately, it predicts that this will last a long time, too - until around 2022 or so....

Will this really happen? It might not.... But it seems prudent to be aware of this possibility.

As for other countries, they all have different demographics.... One interesting thing about Harry Dent's book "The Roaring 2000s Investor" is he goes through these kinds of graphs for many other countries. This suggests that at about that time - around 2008 - it might be wise to have your money invested in countries whose stock markets should be on the way up (if this model applies there). That is, their birth rates suggest that their economies will still be booming. Some of those countries are places like South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Spain....

Will it hold? I don't really know.... I still have questions about it all I'd like to have answered (so I plan to do more of my own research). However, it is an interesting thing to look into and consider....

- Dien Rice

Michael, your post made me think of that BTW [DNO]
 

dno
> dno

Yeah, but what about my question(s)?
 

I had a look at the chart. It looks interesting. And something glares out at me...

He predicted a DOW of 30,000 (roughly) for 2003. We are NOWHERE near that number. If we continued his yellow line we would be chopping off a large section of purple block. And we're not talking a slight miss like the "under-cut" near 1993. We are talking about a DOW which is near 25% of what he predicted. That is a BIG miss.

If this is all supposed to be based on "necessary family spending" than small little outside influences shouldn't matter.

And doesn't following this model show that the followee is basing their investments on price of the stock and not the underlying business - which my original question was asking about.

Sure the DOW might go down (plummet, crash and burn, whatever.) But what about the underlying companies. Some of which should be experiencing growth during this same period...

Certain medical stocks.
Certain property stocks.

Being two just examples.

I recall you even mentioning your stocks going up while the index fell.

So your experience shows certain underlying business are not effected by the index.

His model is so way off the mark it is not even funny.

And we haven't even thrown into the mix the idea that as soon as you know about something, the outcome changes because your actions change thanks to the new information.

So with your experience proving otherwise and his so totally wrong prediction, what stock/faith/reliability can we place in anything else he predicts from this point on?

Wouldn't the smarter thing be to study the stock market from the 1930s to find out which stocks did better than the rest during such a tumultuous time? Because if the economy of today is going to echo the end of the roaring 20s, doesn't it stand to reason the same companies that did well then will do well now - after all, human behavior doesn't really change.

Thoughts?

Michael Ross

I am sensing the need for a simple book to explain "Everything you need to know about the stock and bond market". Stockmarket for dummies?

And also...
 

In a previous post regarding Dent, the chart was offset by 49 years and not 46.5 years (a 5% change in time line)...

http://www.sowpub.com/cgi-bin/forum/webbbs_config.pl?read=3726

He sounds like he's adjusting his formula to make it fit. Now he adds migration into the mix, adjusts for inflation (anyone know the formula he uses to make these adjustments?) and rescales the charts to fit.

Hmmm.

Michael Ross (think I'll just stick with simple investing HA!)

Like all good and short "sayings"...
 

there is a lot of truth and value.

Quite profound.

I have added it to my list of quotes in Writer's Friend.

Michael Ross