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-   -   It's time for those 2009 Trend predictions... Share your Secrets... (http://www.sowpub.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5986)

Phil December 13, 2008 05:25 AM

It's time for those 2009 Trend predictions... Share your Secrets...
 
Bet GJA and company have a few stored away in their Holiday stockings... Have a Politically correct Xmas... :)
http://media.www.mainecampus.com/med...-3573649.shtml

Here's a Free 6 Pack... Turn them into real businesses...
Half a dozen consumer trends for 2009...
http://trendwatching.com/briefing/

Endless ideas & possibilties... Some of the recent posts contain some real Dynamite ideas... ;)

8,000 Springspotters in over 70 countries worldwide working for you...
http://www.springwise.com/
http://www.springwise.com/ideas/

Phil

Sandi Bowman December 13, 2008 08:24 AM

Re: It's time for those 2009 Trend predictions... Share your Secrets...
 
I think trend prediction is largely a waste of time except in specific fields such as appliance colors, clothing, or long term forecasting (as in technology) etc.

Why? Because people are creatures of habit. Unless you take established habits, whether buying habits, use habits, or whatever habits into consideration and go from that point, you have very little chance of changing people's behavior patterns long term. Short term, perhaps, but not long term. Why do you think most New Years Resolutions are soon forgotten? They're bandages, not solutions for the long term.

That being said, you need to become AWARE of these patterns and habits. Then, if you wish to exploit or modify behavior patterns, you have to begin from where the customer IS, not where you'd like them to be. From there on, you can build as you wish but not until you understand and appreciate what foundation the customer/client is standing on first.

Not what you expected, perhaps, but definitely food for thought for any marketer.

Sandi Bowman

Pete Egeler December 13, 2008 01:13 PM

Re: It's time for those 2009 Trend predictions... Share your Secrets...
 
I plan on swooping down on local businesses, prying those cute little folding pieces of green paper with dead presidents on them from their quivering hands.:D

It won't be a cake-walk, but it CAN and will be done to the tune of several hundred bucks per week.

Did you know that 80% of people searching for products and services (even locally) now do it online? Only if they can't find a local source listed online do they turn to the Yellow Pages.

Pete

GordonJ December 13, 2008 02:01 PM

A dark and dire outlook for 2009.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil (Post 23357)
Bet GJA and company have a few stored away in their Holiday stockings...
Phil


Phil,

You know me well.

A dark and dire forecast for 2009.

Well, the one trend that will continue is the Recession/Depression. And for Michael Ross, NO, I haven’t been reading my Kurt Saxon, but it might be a good time for all of us to start.

I see Martial Law in the streets of America with armed thugs and riots the likes we haven’t seen since the 60’s. I see shortages. In fact, when the rich guys start hoarding the gold and diamonds, the rest of us should stockpile toilet paper and rice.

There will NOT be any segment of the American and world economy that isn’t going to be greatly impacted in the next 6 months. You will see unemployment in double digits. Inflation/Deflation (a made up word for OOOPS Sorry about that) at record highs.

The housing market has NOT even bottomed out yet.

In 2009, more people than at any time in history will be personally effected by a natural disaster including wild fires, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, twisters and more by man created ones including infrastructure failure.

The numbers of Gov’t employees will increase substantially in the first 6 months while the debt reaches heretofore never reached heights. There is a not so quiet layer of chaos that is circulating around the globe and you will see the sleeping bear of Russia come out of it’s deep sleep with all teeth glaring.

There have always been Chicken Littles over the years from Howard Ruff in the 70’s to today, and the sky has never fallen, yet.

It is about to.

I’m convinced the people walking around the malls and Wal-Mart and TARGET are totally oblivious to the seriousness of the coming worldwide meltdown. There are those on this board who have written their opinions about the recession and how false it is. Please come back this time next year and we’ll compare notes, OK?

There is a recession, there was and is OUTSOURCING that has had a major impact on the American economy whether you "believe" that there is no such thing or not.

I see very dark and dire times in 2009 for most of YOU and the world.
But then, I got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals. (Thanks Butch Cassidy).

Gordon Jay Alexander

MichaelRoss December 13, 2008 06:30 PM

One Trend In A Sea of Text
 
Gordon,

Thanks for your positive outlook.

I agree. Everyone should read a bit of Kurt Saxon - well maybe not Everyone, but you know. Even if times are good. A little preparedness is a good thing - like a little paranoia.

People should also know how to Hunt - thus own a rifle to do so, even a small air rifle is capable of taking small game which can be eaten (squirrels for example, wild turkeys, rabbits, hares, etc.) but is not really something lethal to humans per se.

People Should have fruit trees growing in their yards. Even a small area for some veggies.

Some dynamo powered devices - torches, radio - in case batteries are not handy or too cumbersome to lug around.

As mentioned, large 10kg bag of rice. Canned food is good for storage. Ah, the old Irish Stew. Spam or equivalent. Canned veggies too. Maybe some packets of 2 minute noodles - the ones in the packet and those in their own cup. Dried peas. For a hundred spot you can buy Heaps of such food that could probably feed a couple of people for a month, as long as they don't guts themselves.

On top of this, some bottled water could be a wise investment. You just never know.

The food/water emergency backup doesn't take up much space and could be loaded into a normal sized car and taken with you, if you need to move. And bought in bits and pieces over a few weeks too.

An air rifle with a couple of tins of pellets - JSB Exacts have proven to be the most accurate in a range of air rifles - together with your food backup could do you for quite a while. Take a fishing rod (collapsible to save space) as well :) - checkout http://www.pyramydair.com/ for air powered rifles and pistols and reviews.

Ok. Not a preparedness/survivalist thread. But, such things do become more Popular as times turn bad. So, there is a trend. Preparedness/Survivalist info and gear and equipment.

Onward.

I'm one of the outsourcing people. Not that I question that it happens. But my stance is, it has ALWAYS happened. Whether it's outsourcing across town, state, country - or - across the water that separates the land masses. So I don't see it as anything New.

And, even rather simple operations that don't think they outsource, actually do. Even if all you sell are home published books and reports - and like Kurt Saxon, place them on CDs - you still outsource. As someone else made the blank CDs you put your stuff on to. Someone else made the envelopes you ship it in. And so on.

Unless you own ALL the means of production from Primary Resource through to basic smelting plants, manufacturing plants and so on. Unless you own each possible business that makes any item you use in your operation, you outsource in some way.

So there is no question that outsourcing takes place. The only question is Where things are outsourced to.

Onward.

Recession wise. Apart from Official Data that says, we've had a certain amount of growth, or lack thereof, for a specified period of time. Apart from that, what designates a recession as opposed to normal every day events?

Is toilet paper theft from work on the rise? Are more people taking the Charity Candy without putting their money in the slot? Are there increased drive offs from gas stations?

If the media doesn't report it, how does average Joe know there is a recession?

I don't care if unemployment goes up, to whatever it gets to, the majority of people still have a job of some kind. So with that in mind, How does that Employed person know there is a recession? How are they effected?

The construction industry pretty well grinds to a halt during the Yuletide/Winter Solstice Season. So it's no surprise that around this time Rumor comes of a major scaffold company laying off 40-50 guys in my city due to a decline in work. BUT, speaking with one of the Scaffolders who works for that company, the truth becomes... there was a quiet two weeks and they Considered it - but - then we had a surge and we're all flat out again. And if they'd laid off those guys they couldn't supply customers who'd have to go to other companies.

Others in the industry report a Decline in Residential work and an Increase in Commercial work. So they just do more Commercial Work instead of Residential Work. It's the way the money flows. And it makes sense...

For decades money has flowed into market segments that the baby boomers grew threw. For years baby supply places Boomed then dwindled off as that surge of babies had passed. Same goes for whatever the Boomers did. But it doesn't just apply to the Boomers. All generations have their own little Quirks.

For instance, down here Gen X (and some cross over Gen Y) has got the renovating bug. Where they will get an older home and Do It Up. Rip up the carpet and redo the floorboards, for example.

As a result, there has been an Increase in floorboard installers, floorboard replica products, etc. BUT, eventually, that surge will die down as those who were going to do it, did it. And Business for those businesses will decline. They will need to lay off staff. And for Them, it's recession time.

Point. Different generations throw their money into different areas at different times. The spending trends change. While some areas surge, others decline. Some remain constant - fruit and vegetable stores, for example, always seem to do a brisk trade because people need to eat.

And so I ask... to the employed person, how do they know it's recession time?

Onward.

Riots. Granted, we Always have riots. Every year we have riots. If it's not the socialists rioting about the G8 meeting or some such around September or whenever they are, it's some other group - like in Greece and now flowing into Europe at the moment.

But I notice you say, since the 60s. So that would mean an Increase in riots. Over what, it would be good to know. War? Tax hikes? Racial preferential treatments or lack thereof?

It is true that when the American Economy sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. At least it Seems that way. Which is to be expected considering a LOT of international trade is done in $US, oil is traded in it. And the American Consumer's consumption has kept producers around the planet in business for a long time. So at some point, when consumption goes throw a down part of a cycle, others suffer. But money still flows. Just to other areas.

Like in bad times, survivalist stuff.

Michael Ross

L.B. Jenkins December 15, 2008 01:32 AM

A dark and dire for the few not the masses.
 
Wow Gordon,

I never realized that you were such a "Doom and Gloom" kind of person.

The problem I'm having with all of this, is simply this. Now that the secretary of Treasury, Henry Paulson got his $700 Billion Dollar wish, he is not tapping into it and is not making the banks follow through by making loans as was required when this bill was drafted and passed by OUR US GOVERNMENT!!!

What happened to if the banks can't make loans, our financial sector will collapse? Where is the urgency now? Did something magically happen where our banks are now stable?

Bernie Franks, the Chairman of the Finance Committee is furious about this because it was him and Henry Paulson that wrote that bill together and got it passed. But now the distribution of this money is not taking place.

Let's also not forget that the Department of Treasury just acquired an additional $2,000,000,000,000 trillion dollars of US taxpayer monies and is not disclosing why they were granted this, on who's authority, and will not disclose who will receive this money.

Now another revelation has been exposed to the American public. It turns out that the Big 3 auto bailout was really only for 2 of the Big 3. All that scariness if they don't get their monies all three are going under, but now Ford isn't. What happened there? Did something magically happen that now Ford is stable?

The other point I want to make is that our total US population is over 300,000,000 million and is rapidly approaching 400,000,000 million. But we're talking about a meltdown of a country where 1-1.5 million Americans may be out of work. What about the other 298,000,000 million citizens that are still working? Our country is not going to meltdown nor is going to collapse.

I know by this time next year, I will still be here and I will be still making sales and making money.

For those that have lost their jobs, if they are serious about working then they will do what it takes to get that ball rolling again. For those who want to stand on street corners, with their resumes plastered on sign boards, are silly and foolishly wasting their of time.

Every moment they stand there, they are not making an effort to bring in an income. 2009 will be dire for them, but not those who wake up tomorrow and get busy starting all over.

BTW, economists are still stating that our markets are still bullish and that bargains are everywhere. I say, 2009 is going to be a feeding frenzy and it is rapidly approaching a buyer's market. Especially for the small investor.

Ankesh December 15, 2008 01:58 AM

Re: A dark and dire for the few not the masses.
 
Thanks L.B.

Small error with numbers in your post... US population is over 300 million. 300,000,000.

300,000,000 billion = 300,000,000,000,000,000.

(Same error with $2,000,000,000 trillion. Which = $2 billion trillion.)

And the unemployment rate in US is reaching 10%. So 1 out of every 10 will be out of a job. Thats 30 million people. Or 30,000,000 out of 300,000,000.

But disregarding these number errors, I agree with:

Quote:

For those that have lost their jobs, if they are serious about working then they will do what it takes to get that ball rolling again. For those who want to stand on street corners, with their resumes plastered on sign boards, are silly and foolishly wasting their of time.

MichaelRoss December 15, 2008 03:23 AM

The Productive Find Ways
 
LB and Ankesh, thanks.

Re unemployment. I wonder how these Numbers are figured out.

And agree that those who want to work will find work, while those who don't will find nothing.

Cases in point...

Friend's brother. Jobless. Has been for 9 months now. Can't find a job. Let me clarify... cannot find a middle/upper management job he can walk right in to. So Chooses to remain jobless.

Fellow is on the Dole for 10 years. Says, after trying for 1,000 jobs he cannot find one. I quickly calculate... 100 jobs a year is 2 a week. Minimum requirement to get the dole is Try for 2 jobs a week. And trying can be as simple as a Phone Call...

Hi, I'm calling about the Brain Surgeon position. Is it gone yet?

In the end the Dole Office gave him a job working for them.

He could easily have signed with any number of Labor Hire businesses and would have been working the very next day. Laboring. But hey, don't knock it unless you've tried it. And some laborers make $80k a year down here. Some make less. But $50 - $60k is easily achievable for a laborer. Office workers get paid $40k if they are lucky, more like $30k. And most spend years in Uni to get a degree so they can look down on grubby laborers.

If you want to work, you'll find work. If not, you'll find excuses. Then you can blame the recession and riot in the street :)

Michael Ross

Monika L December 15, 2008 03:57 AM

Re: It's time for those 2009 Trend predictions... Share your Secrets...
 
Hello Michael Ross.

" Boy do I agree with that". I too believe there is work for everyone.

Have a good day

Monika Tuttle

L.B. Jenkins December 15, 2008 09:56 AM

Re: A dark and dire for the few not the masses.
 
Ankesh,

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ankesh (Post 23379)
Thanks L.B.

Small error with numbers in your post... US population is over 300 million. 300,000,000.

300,000,000 billion = 300,000,000,000,000,000.

(Same error with $2,000,000,000 trillion. Which = $2 billion trillion.)

And the unemployment rate in US is reaching 10%. So 1 out of every 10 will be out of a job. That's 30 million people. Or 30,000,000 out of 300,000,000.

But disregarding these number errors, I agree with:


I went back and double checked my resources and you are correct about the population being in the millions not the billions. I've got to hunt and peck better.

As for the unemployed, on 12/05/08 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported those that are unemployed are at 10.3 million not 30 million. Our unemployment rate went from 6.6 to 6.7%.


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