I also refuse to participate in this "recession" depression . . . Ha Ha Ha !
 

DJIA breaks into the 7,000's, lost 500 points in one week.
I don't own stocks what does that have to do with me?

As we all know it's just an average of 30 stocks. But it a
barometer of the economy. As we head into the depression
everyone will participate in it, either directly or indirectly.

Bill Gates will lose billions, lay of workers, he will participate.
Your $200,000 home is now worth $125,000 you will participate.
Your family members that can't find jobs will participate.
We all are going to participate, don't feel like you are special
and it will pass you by.

No matter what party is in the White House they had nothing to
do with this depression. Events don't change trends.

Regards,
D.R.(Don)McArdle

Re: I also refuse to participate in this "recession" depression . . . Ha Ha Ha !
 

Don,

By refusing to participate, I mean I'm not changing my lifestyle, buying decisions, etc, on what the nightly news reports as the latest impact.

Since I'm in my house for the long term, any market decline in housing doesn't affect me as a non-buyer, non-seller in real estate. I'm an owner and any loss in value would be like the "loss on paper" they report for Bill Gates, owners of Yahoo, WalMart, etc.

I'm self-employed, so I'm not worried about a pink slip in my next pay check or hearing my employer's name on the news as the economy exposes another corporate finance scandal.

When i cited the news anchors reporting about the "Worst economy in 50 years" I was focusing on the news media's manipulation of the situation and not which party benefited or was in power.

The same media gave us the flip-flop reporting on FL for Gore, OOPS, we mean FL for Bush, ERR Correction it's too close to call.

I'll wait to see the results, rather than accepting the pre-digested events as they choose to relate them.

Following like sheep to the slaughter is for people who can't use their own grey matter to make decisions on their own.

Like after any President gives their State of the Union speech, and before we hear the rebuttal, the talking heads on the boob tube tell us what the speech meant. I'm sure you don't need Dan Blather, Ted, Peter, or any of the others to tell you what the man just said 5 minutes before.

I respect a journalist who tells my his opinion or take on political speech or actions, but don't respect any who spin and massage the message to glean what they want from it and pass it on as unbiased reporting.

JMHO.

Dennis Bevers




And capitalistic life goes on, meeting the needs of businesses large and small!

Re: I agree...
 

Far too many investors focus on the "market value" of their holdings. I think it's one of the main reasons most stock market investors lose money.

No business focuses on its inventory's market value -- they buy, put a reasonable markup on it, and then sell when they can. They only address market value when they determine they want to buy or sell. And they restrain their buying and selling (and their fear and/or greed) with a plan. Age is another factor -- you don't want your inventory on hand too long.

Most stock market investors don't view their portfolio as a business. It's a shame; it's more profitable and less stressful that way.

Best,
Phil

Profit from market downturns
 

If you believe the market is heading down, there's no reason you can't benefit from that. You can always short sell stocks, buy put options, or write call options, which would all be profitable strategies in a falling market. :)

Best Regards,

- Thomas.

Re:Never use one indicator to figure your net-worth
 

Hi Dennis

>For the record, the company I represent as an independent agent,
>posted a 8.7% increase in sales from 2000 to 2001.

You have some good information to predict what the next 5 years
will be like in a depression in your field. Go to your company and
request the sales% from 1929 to 1933. This will be a good indication
of what to expect in 2002 to 2006. If you do please post it here, it should
be interesting

Ø $3000+ drop has no direct impact in my net worth.

I got out of the stock market when it was 10,000 plus. I saw this coming.
So this part of my net-worth is safe. But . . . .

Everyone should evaluate their net-worth every year on all their
income producing finances and possessions. Your possessions value
should be figured on not what you paid for it, but it's market value now.

That car I just bought cost $22,000. I drove it 5 miles to my house,
now it worth $18,000. My net -worth just decreased.

Now the real estate bubble, when it busts my $200,000 home value
will be around $125,000. My net-worth just dropped again.

Net-worth should be figured on today's values not what you paid for it.

>The same media gave us the flip-flop reporting on FL for Gore, OOPS,
>we mean FL for Bush, ERR Correction it's too close to call.

I agree one should analyze the new. When I was a kid we had a saying
"Don't believe everything you hear, and only half of what you see".

The news media caught hell on this one, but I don't put the blame on them.
Two out of three voters that was polled after they voted said they voted for
Gore, or they thought they did. Between the chads and a terrible looking
ballet the pollsters got, I voted for Gore, but the voting machine said
otherwise.

It was not really the news media fault, they were just reporting the news
they were getting. I think they shouldn't report about the election till
all the polls close in all 50 states.

>I'll wait to see the results, rather than accepting the pre-digested events as
>they choose to relate them.

>Following like sheep to the slaughter is for people who can't use their own grey matter to make
>decisions on their own.

This is the same way I fell when I visit forums. There is always the same
three people that post "this is spam" . It's like the forum board owner
and people that read the messages "can't use their own grey matter to make
decisions on their own".

It's like if their names are not there as a stamp of approval then we can't
figure out it spam. By the way they are regulars at fib forum.

Regards,
D.R.(Don)Mcardle

Participate does not mean Be Effected By
 

> DJIA breaks into the 7,000's, lost 500
> points in one week.
> I don't own stocks what does that have to do
> with me?

> As we all know it's just an average of 30
> stocks. But it a
> barometer of the economy.

I always thought the stock market was only what the psychotic market thought the company was worth that day. Sometimes based on things as stupid as superstition (every year at a certain date the stock market dives because that's what happened back in '97).

The day to day value of stock does not reflect the performance of the underlying business. Over time, yes, but not day to day.

The stock market is just one form of investing.

A drop in stock prices could mean many different things - superstition, bad "crop report," CEO scandal, law suit threat, actual poor company performance, investors moving their money into other areas, etc.

Whether or not the CEO of Coke is found to have an affair or not, it does not have an impact on my decision to buy Coke and thus send more money to Coke.

One hundred thousand people may decide to take their money out of the stock market - causing a ripple and scare and price drop - because they want to buy into "gated" retirement communities. On one hand the stock drops while on the other hand a lot of money is now being spent on construction and that industry booms.

As we head into
> the depression
> everyone will participate in it, either
> directly or indirectly.

> Bill Gates will lose billions, lay of
> workers, he will participate.

He may lose money (paper money he never had in the bank in the first place) but whether he lays people off is something we cannot know for certain.

Some sales may drop... then again, he may also already have things in place to counteract this. So actual microsoft sales figures may hardly change at all.

> Your $200,000 home is now worth $125,000 you
> will participate.

And what if it is worth only half? If I own it and never intend to leave, then who cares? If I sell it to move into another house I bought, it will also be worth half. So I will pay less for it. - It's all relative.

> Your family members that can't find jobs
> will participate.

And what about those who do have jobs?

For that matter... what's with all the hypotheticals to make things look bad?

> We all are going to participate, don't feel
> like you are special
> and it will pass you by.

I may be effected by the recession... but that does not mean I will participate in it (change my spending habits, do nothing if business begins to fall off, etc). Or sit by and do nothing.

Lets face it... if every body decided to not participate in this recession, there would be no recession.

> No matter what party is in the White House
> they had nothing to
> do with this depression. Events don't change
> trends.

Events don't change trends... they compound and cause trends.

Michael Ross


If you haven't subscribed to The Great Ideas Letter you are missing out on a lot of good stuff

My Net Worth is only and indication of
 

my net worth.

It doesn't measure how much I make, or spend. Those factors may come into its calculation... but the final number only measures my net worth.

> Everyone should evaluate their net-worth
> every year on all their
> income producing finances and possessions.

WHY should we do this every year?

I do this (figure my net worth) on a monthly basis to measure my financial progess towards my financial goals. For me, waiting until the end of the year to see how things are going doesn't allow me to adjust direction fast enough.

But most people do not really have financial goals... they just go to work to pay the bills until they retire and get the pension (usually paying off whatever debts they have with their lump sum when they retire). So why should they know their financial worth? And why every year?

> Your possessions value
> should be figured on not what you paid for
> it, but it's market value now.

Good point... and to figure "market value now" I figure what my possessions would sell for in a garage sale! Not insured value, or the price similar items are priced at in a second hand store. There may be a better method but I use the same method all the time so my figure are consistant. It also means I am under-mistic :o)

> The news media caught hell on this one, but
> I don't put the blame on them.
> Two out of three voters that was polled
> after they voted said they voted for
> Gore, or they thought they did.

Don, as per my other post... polls are meaningless unless we know WHO was polled - sex, demographics, political leaning, employment status, etc.

We all know we can find whatever answer we want when doing polls. And we can do five polls and get five different sets of results.

> It was not really the news media fault, they
> were just reporting the news
> they were getting. I think they shouldn't
> report about the election till
> all the polls close in all 50 states.

There is an alternative to this... make voting compulsory. Then it won't matter as much because everyone will be voting anyway.

Michael Ross


This could be what you are looking for...

Michael and Don, a question ...
 

Michael and Don -

You both make good, solid points.

Without taking sides, I have a question for both of you:

Don,you say: "Events don't cause trends."

Michael, you say: "Events don't cause trends ... they compound and cause them."

Could you both explain what you mean by your statements?

I am enjoying your discussion. Good posting!

Robert M. Campbell


Book coming soon: Timing the Real Estate Market

Re: My Net Worth is only and indication of
 

Hi Michael

>So why should they know their financial worth?

Because when you get into big business deals they want to know
your net-worth.

>And why every year?

Because most people never do it at all.

You said you do it every month. That is a waste of time. If you make three
lines of people, one line of people that do it every month, that line would
be pretty short. The other line once a year, that line would be very long.
The third line for people that never make one out, that line would go from
coast to coast.

I been retired now for 9 years, and my retired income is in the top 10%
of retired peoples income. So I think I have made some good decisions in
my life. So once a year has worked just fine with me.

> Don, as per my other post... polls are meaningless unless we know WHO
>was polled - sex, demographics, political leaning, employment status, etc.

These exit polls are used in every election and they are right on the money.
All they want to know, who did you vote for. Nothing tricky about that question.

Nice talking with you Michael .

Regards.
D.R.(Don) McArdle

Re: Michael and Don, a question ...
 

Hi Robert M. Campbell

It's always nice to see your name on a post, glad you dropped by.
First by question to you. Is the real estate bubble ready to pop?

Now to answer your question.

>Don,you say: "Events don't cause trends."
>Michael, you say: "Events don't cause trends ... they compound and cause them."

Evidently Michael has never study cycles and trends, or he would never make
that statement. I think he's saying that events causes trends.

Now back to real estate, I know you have expertise in this field. And this is a
good example of the trend in real estate. I bought a house in Calif. in early 1974
it doubled in value in less then 4 years. And the trend still seems to be bullish.

A lot of events have gone by since 1974 and not one of them made the trend change.
"Events do not create or change stock market trends" or any other trend.

Two good books to read on trends, cycles, and herding. Yes herding! You will be
hearing more on this as time goes on. Seems like people follow in herds just like
animals.

We are NOW in a double dip recession which will end up a depression.
But the gov will not tell you that for at leased 6 to 8 more months that
we are in a double dip recession.

I rely on my information by studying the Kondratieff Wave and the
DJIA Wave over the last 100-150 years. They are just about a mirror
image of each other. You will see the 30 and 70 year cycles jump out
at you. Couple this with The Elliott Wave that explains the above two
waves and you can see where we are headed.

Two books that will explain in detail what's ahead by author Robert R
Prechter Jr .

Book one:
"The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science
of SOCIONOMICS" The purpose of this book is to establish the idea
that in humans, an unconscious HERDING impulse impels social mood
trends and changes that are specifically pattern according to a natural
growth principle and which in turn is the engine of cultural expression
and social action. He goes on to explain the herding that takes place
in the stock market. This is a book everyone should have, buy it or
pick it up at your local library.

Book two:
"Conquer the Crash, you can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression"
This book is what is happing right now. This is the other book you should have
in your home library.

Regards,
D.R.(Don)McArdle