How the theory of evolution governs the business world
 

The theory of evolution talks about how creatures evolved from one critter to another....

Each step brought each critter closer from something broad to something more specialized and niched.... Sometimes, though, even that greater "niching" could become more generalized, and be useful for so many other things....

What is true is that this is also the case for business evolution.

Evolutionary occurrences may happen as a result of a change in the environment -- as the world's atmosphere became filled with oxygen (which is released by plants), oxygen-breathing creatures began to appear. As the world cooled down, warm-blooded creatures, like mammals and birds, emerged to take advantage of the new colder conditions, while the less well-suited dinosaurs were wiped out....

This happens in business too. As a result of the changing environment, businesses evolve.....

Think about it. The new gasoline engines brought about the new evolution of automobiles. These new cars pretty much brought about the extinction of the horse and buggy.....

Of course, around these new evolutionary changes, even more niches were created, and we found the "evolution" of auto mechanics, rubber tire manufacturers, taxi companies, bumper sticker printers ....

There's an economist from the first half of the 20th century, Joseph Schumpeter, who talked about "creative destruction" in entrepreneurship.... Each creation brings about some "destruction" too, by making old ways outdated....With new creation also inevitably comes the loss of some of what was happening before....

Sometimes, what starts out as a specialized niche can turn out to become very generalized... For example, in birds there were the evolution of feathers. We believe that feathers first evolved for warmth -- and they are still used only for warmth in many big birds, like ostriches and emus, and even some small flightless birds like the kiwi.... However, eventually they came to also be used in flight by the majority of the birds in the world today....

Similarly, in business, what started out as being very specialized niche, can sometimes become very generalized. This is what's happened with the internet... The internet started out as being a specialist network for the military and for university academics.... From there, it has evolved so that now, it is so widespread that it is entering millions of new homes every year....

How can this help you?

Here's how I think it can.... The key, I believe, is to be on the right side of the "creative destruction" process.... Today, that means working with what it seems will be very big -- like the internet, with WAP, with the new technology of optical networks, and so on.... What you might call the new "evolutionary" trends....

You don't have to necessarily be creating the infrastructure. Remember, each new "evolutionary" development like this will create its own new niches....

For example, take the big "evolutionary" change of personal computers in the late 1970s and in the 1980s. One of the people who profited the most from that was Michael Dell.... But he doesn't put computers together. He just sells them better than anybody else does.... (I believe he outsources his assembly services to a different company.)

The computer industry spawned its own new niches. Things like word processing software, spreadsheet software, and even the internet becoming accessible to the general public was partly a new "niche" spawned by the personal computer....

The internet will in itself spawn its own new niches.... We can see some of them now, like web site developers, ebook sellers, ezine publishers, and so on.... I'm sure there are still many more "niches" which will emerge from the internet, which we haven't even seen yet.

Right now, many companies are working on the problem of internet bandwidth.... They are working on new optical technologies to allow us to get more data even faster than before, such as the emerging technology of optical switching.

Once these problems are solved, I believe we'll really start to see live internet movies take off.... Who knows, internet TV may even begin to replace things like cable TV, once the problem of bandwidth is solved (we see the beginnings of it already).... However, it could still be a few years down the track before this becomes very widespread....

The process of "creative destruction" is happening all the time... Just as the word processor helped to make the typewriter almost "extinct", similarly the internet will cause this to happen to some other businesses too.... It's not always possible to tell with 100% accuracy, but I wouldn't be surprised if the fax machine and the long-distance phone companies go the way of typewriters, as the internet eventually makes these businesses almost obsolete....

If your business is evolving to fill the newly created niches -- and if your TIMING is right and your execution is good -- you could do well!

- Dien Rice

For history of science buffs....
 

This may only be of interest to science buffs.... But being a scientist as well as trying to stride in the world of business, I thought this would be of interest for those here who are striding both worlds to some degree too.... :)

In my earlier message I mentioned the work of Joseph Schumpeter, and his idea of "creative destruction" in entrepreneurship...

This idea means simply that as new products, services, and processes are created, many of them will supplant the older products, services, and processes.... So with the new creativity, if it is successful, inevitably comes some "destruction" of the old ways.... He didn't see economics as a theory of systems coming to equilibrium, but of constant "revolutions"....

When I read this, coming from a science background, I immediately thought of Thomas Kuhn's theory of scientific revolutions and paradigm shifts.... There is an incredible parallel, it seems, between these two ideas. And furthermore, they both have a similarity to the ideas in evolution....

You could reinterpret Schumpeter's idea of "creative destruction" to fit it to science.... Where the creation of a new, superior theory "destroys" to some degree the old theory...

For example, the way that Copernicus's heliocentric system of planets made the geocentric model of Aristotle and Ptolemy obsolete....

Or more recently, how discovery of the 3K microwave background to the universe (a remnant of the Big Bang) pretty much has made all other cosmologies (eg. the Steady State theory of the universe) obsolete....

(I'm picking these examples from physics since that's my area of specialty... :) )

Just thought i'd point that similarity out, for those motivated enough to look into it more through a dual interest in business and science.... :)

- Dien Rice

I just love this stuff! :) Excellent post
 

Great post--I especially enjoyed the part about destruction.

Here is another evolutionary example:

In the wild, animals (often) tend to be lumped into one of two categories--predator or prey. In order to survive, they must constantly evolve to keep up with the times.

The prey: To survive, it must develop better colorings and markings to remain "invisible" to the predator in their natural environment.

In response, the predator develops better eyesight to more easily spot the camoflauged prey. Indeed, some predatory animals have developed a four color cone vision system (or more) to detect prey in hiding (humans have only three cones--we cannot begin to imagine the colors that these animals see!).

Although this can be used as an analogy for many businesses, here is a specific example:

Radar detectors!

Police (predators?) develop better systems of detecting speeder. In response, certain businesses keep developing better radar detectors to keep speeders (prey?) informed of any police in the area.

And so the cycle continues, two businesses evolving as they compete.

This makes me also think that the consumer must want to evolve. Although greatly in the minority, there are folks out there who wouldn't give up their typewriters. So down the road we may see one of two things happen: a) Typewriters and their loyal followers will die out or b) these folks will "survive" because they have an advantage--perhaps they are better writers because they don't rely on the word processing program to check their documents.

And here you can see another round of changes happening...as it is parents and educators are concerned that kids aren't learning math because they are using calculators. What if computers moved into the classroom fully, such that kids didn't need to know how to write properly? I think we'd start hearing about it pretty quick...and all of a sudden we have a group of folks (parents and educators) who don't WANT to evolve--at least not yet.

That's my rambling seventeen cents...
Becky




To discuss or not to discuss, that is the question: find your answer here

Re: I just love this stuff! :) Excellent post
 

Becky wrote -

> followers will die out or b) these folks
> will "survive" because they have
> an advantage--perhaps they are better
> writers because they don't rely on the word
> processing program to check their documents.

How does *not* relying on a word processor to "check their documents" make a typewriter user a better writer? The elements of language are the same whether one uses a word processing program or a typewriter.

> What if computers moved into
> the classroom fully, such that kids didn't
> need to know how to write properly?

How do computers in the classroom prevent kids from knowing how to write properly? The ability to use cut and paste has nothing to do with the ability to construct a sentence. Now if you're referring to handwriting, then yes. But... once the basics are learned, why not use the computer? It's generally much faster and neater. That's why we have them. To improve our quality of life. *g*

Rick Smith, "The Net Guerrilla"

I was just trying to think...
 

...of a reason why typewriter folks might "survive." Perhaps it wasn't a good example. *grin* From an evolutionary standpoint, species that survive usually have some type of advantage over species that don't (i.e., the predator that doesn't develop the better visual system will either die or have to become a vegetarian).

So...with regards to the writing...I was thinking of the mechanics such as spelling, grammar, etc., all of which can be checked on a computer. Kids could become "lazy" with regards to spelling because they don't have to work at it. This mentality ticks educators/parents off (back to the uproar about kids not REALLY knowing how to do math--they just punch numbers without understanding how it works).

Personally, I have no objection to calculators or computers in the classroom...they keep the kids moving forward with the times.

I just like to play devil's advocate every once in a while. *grin* (or should that be *evil grin*?)

Becky




Add your two cents...!

"Creative destruction"
 

Hi Becky!

I'm glad you liked the post.... :) I'm surprised how well the ideas from evolution seem to fit the business world so well....

> Great post--I especially enjoyed the part
> about destruction.

Heheh, when I first read about it, I thought the term "creative destruction" sounded pretty wild.... :)

However, when you think about it, it's true.... It'd be nice if we could keep everything, but clearly this is not possible. The reason people generally don't buy themselves a horse and buggy is precisely the reason why "destruction" (for better or worse) is also part of the process.... Since (for example) a car is much more practical than a horse and buggy.

I guess the key is knowing that the process is always happening and trying to stay on the right side of it....

I think knowing about the process of "creative destruction" suggests ways of coming up with new ideas.... For example, instead of focusing what you can create, you can also focus on what will inevitably become obsolete as a result of today's technology. Once you feel you know which way things will go as a result of technology today, you can move into position to take advantage of the upcoming new niches.... It's just an alternative approach to the usual one....

For example, I strongly believe that either long distance phone charges will come down very dramatically, or they'll become obsolete (as more people use the internet to talk to each other by voice internationally). If you think this is "inevitable," then it could be good to hop on the trend -- for example, by selling software which enables people to talk to each other over the internet. (However, the timing might still be too early, it's hard to say without trying it out....)

> Here is another evolutionary example:

> In the wild, animals (often) tend to be
> lumped into one of two categories--predator
> or prey. In order to survive, they must
> constantly evolve to keep up with the times.

> The prey: To survive, it must develop better
> colorings and markings to remain
> "invisible" to the predator in
> their natural environment.

> In response, the predator develops better
> eyesight to more easily spot the camoflauged
> prey. Indeed, some predatory animals have
> developed a four color cone vision system
> (or more) to detect prey in hiding (humans
> have only three cones--we cannot begin to
> imagine the colors that these animals see!).

Wow, I didn't know that about the sight of some predators! :)

> Although this can be used as an analogy for
> many businesses, here is a specific example:

> Radar detectors!

> Police (predators?) develop better systems
> of detecting speeder. In response, certain
> businesses keep developing better radar
> detectors to keep speeders (prey?) informed
> of any police in the area.

> And so the cycle continues, two businesses
> evolving as they compete.

That's a good analogy -- I hadn't thought of that! Thanks Becky....

I like your idea of how it's a cycle, each side using innovation and new technology to try to get ahead of the other....

> This makes me also think that the consumer
> must want to evolve. Although greatly in the
> minority, there are folks out there who
> wouldn't give up their typewriters. So down
> the road we may see one of two things
> happen: a) Typewriters and their loyal
> followers will die out or b) these folks
> will "survive" because they have
> an advantage--perhaps they are better
> writers because they don't rely on the word
> processing program to check their documents.

Here's an example of how typewriters are still used....

I've been thinking about these issues the past several days, and in the process I asked my brother Thomas if he could think of any instances where typewriters were still used. He works part-time at a stock-broking firm, and he said that they still used a typewriter at his stockbroking firm to quickly address envelopes. So the typewriter has one advantage -- you can quickly and precisely type on an odd-sized piece of paper (like an evelope) by just lining it up! You can do it with a computer printer too, but not as easily. So the typewriter is not quite "extinct" yet.... :)

I agree with you about word processors and education, in that it could give some students the idea that they don't need to learn how to spell (for example)....

Thanks Becky, I loved your post.... I thought it was very stimulating, with a lot of food for thought! :)

- Dien

You Want Reasons?
 

> ...of a reason why typewriter folks might
> "survive."

Because one day, maybe all power generators will stop for some reason. There will be no electricity. Computers will not run and the only people who will be able to provide us with written material are those who can use a "clunker".

(I was reading something the other day by an author who gave their grandchild an old typewriter and encouragement to learn to use it before moving on.)

The overall point is quite a valid one.

It's fine to use a calculator... but learn to do it long-hand or in your head first.

I'm reminded of something which is an effort to avoid a potentially massive downside to our modern world. The same downside the ancients never spotted... or if they did, didn't do too much about it.

And that is... the evolution of our language and information storage methods.

What would happen in 2000 years time when someone finds a CD ROM?

You can be darn sure CD ROMs as we know them won't exist. So how can what is stored on the CD ROM be extracted?

One man can up with a novel approach.

First, the CD ROM contains clearly visible text which provides instructions for contructing a magnifying glass. With the magnifying glass you can read the much smaller text which provides instructions for constructing a microscope. With the microscope you can read the extremely small text which provides a set of instructions... and so on and so forth, until you've built a CD ROM drive and a device which can read it and display it.

He views it as a modern day Rosetta Stone, of sorts.

The trick is not to think only a few years ahead, or even ten, but to think hundreds and thousands of years ahead. To a time when technology has moved on and so has the language.

It's a fair bet that there are more people who can write computer programs using VB, C++ and Delphi than know how to write in machine code.

What would happen at a point in time when the developers of VB, C++ and Delphi move on? The knowledge of how their compiler and assembler work to take what the programer writes and turn it into something the computer can understand, will be gone with them. No big deal... UNTIL you need to fix it!

An episode of Star trek touched on this very subject. The crew encountered a peoples who had a machine which could read their thoughts and create what they wanted. It gave them tremendous time savings and allowed them really enjoy life. The problem was... the machine had been built so long ago no one knew how to fix it or how it worked.

I may know how to drive a car, change the oil and plugs and the basic theory of how the combustion engine works... but ask me to build one and you can just forget it.

How many people know how to bake their own bread by hand - gather grain, grind it, and so on? How many know how to track and stalk an animal, kill it, skin it and prepare it for consumption?

Granted, the fact we don't all know these things and have tended to specialize is why we've been able to advance as much as we have. But what happens when all the farmers suddenly drop dead? Who will know how to plant and nurture a field of crops?

And if the next level up ceases to exist, who will know how to take that little white ball of fluff from the plant and turn it into a cotton shirt?

I'm not sugesting we should all go and learn how to spin, and weave, and knit. Merely using those items as a way to express a point by way of example.

How many people know how to start a fire?

It's such a fundamental human achievement... and yet... hardly anyone knows how to do it without the use of lighters or matches or a magnifying glass.

Taking advantage of our modern advancements is fine... after you learn the basics first. Then no matter what happens, you'll be prepared. Your downside will have been covered.

Michael Ross.

California Rolling Blackouts. Typewriters.
 

Now, this is amazing.
While Michael was writing this some people took out their old typewriters because of the California rolling blackouts.

I am enclosing an article with some interesting arguments in favour of "mechanical" writing.

Simon

February 20, 2001
Demise of Typewriter Shop Saddens Authors Who Nurse Their Machines
By GLENN COLLINS
Another typewriter store is going out of business; a few more of the shrinking qwerty minority shudder.
"It's like having the carpet pulled out from under us," said Stewart R. Manville, a longtime customer of the Tytell Typewriter Company in Manhattan, which is closing after seven decades.
Like those who cling to vinyl, Mr. Manville and other typewriter diehards argue that theirs is the superior technology. Simpler. More reliable. More easily maintained. Able to print immediately, without a costly accessorized entourage.
And lest critics say they're out of touch, the typewriter defenders can cite truly with-it advantages, too. The machines are made to last, so are environmentally superior. And they are less likely to inflict repetitive-motion injuries on typists' hands.
But more important, typewriter lovers believe that the word-processing computer's so-called advances — the ability to write without stopping, the nearly effortless power to move words, sentences, paragraphs and chapters quite seamlessly, and even the magic of machine-corrected spelling and grammar — have not come without their cost.
In fact, they suggest, the word processor has vitiated, well, writing itself.
"A lot of people think that using a computer will not change, or will improve, the quality of writing, but I am absolutely sure that they are wrong," said Robert A. Caro, the biographer and typewriter adept who won a Pulitzer Prize for "The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York," his 1974 biography.
"The computer makes things faster and easier, but I am not sure that faster and easier are an unalloyed good," Mr. Caro said. "Is it really a good thing to write as fast as your fingers can move? I think with my fingers, so I want to slow myself down."
Mr. Caro still uses a Smith Corona 210, as he has for decades, even though "it's harder and harder to get spare parts," he said. And so, he cannibalizes other unsuspecting Smith Coronas to keep going (he owns 14 at the moment). "I'm not telling anyone how to write," he said. "I'm not saying computers are a bad thing, but for me, the very act of going slower gives you more time to think about it. And I am always afraid that I won't think enough."
Another typewriterist agrees. "I don't see myself as a Luddite," said Morley Safer, a correspondent for "60 Minutes," who owns a Tytell-serviced Olivetti Lettera 32. Nevertheless, he said flatly: "The copy that comes out of the computer is all the same gray, without character."
Even apostates worry about the computer's effect on their writing. Peter Maas, the author of "Underboss" and "Serpico," spurned his typewriter after "my son shamed me into getting a computer," Mr. Maas said. "I started typing and it was like a miracle. The screen looked so authoritative. I could instantly erase mistakes. I thought it was fabulous." He paused. "Until I printed out what I wrote." A sigh.
"It was horrifying," he said, "so easy to spill out words. Too easy." He still uses a computer, "but I had to retrain myself." He added: "Now I try to be more careful as I work, because it's so easy to overwrite."
Nonsense, say others. The whole menace-of-prolixity contention "is the kind of specious argument that I would be using if I were making the case for the typewriter," said Andy Rooney, Mr. Safer's colleague on "60 Minutes," who began using WordPerfect a decade ago. "I hate to say this, but my writing is better since I started using a computer, because I can now redo things that I wouldn't have taken the time to redo."
But Mr. Rooney owns 17 Underwood 5 manual machines "because I don't want to run out of typewriters before I die." He types envelopes and thank-you notes with them.
Many people — O.K., most people — agree with Mr. Rooney that computers make writing easier. But the champions of progress have to cede some of the pro-typewriter points.
"Remember, a typewriter will not crash," said Mr. Manville, curator of the Percy Granger Library in White Plains. "You cannot lose what you have written, due to a power surge" or a technical breakdown.
Mr. Safer likes a machine "that does immediate printing," he said, adding that his Olivetti "is ready to roll anytime I am." Indeed, he despises "the whole little charade you go through before the computer says, `Now you may use me.' " He has typed on Olivetti manuals for 40 years, and owns six of them in New York, Connecticut and London.
Then there is the safety issue. "From an ergonomic standpoint, the old mechanical typewriter has a number of advantages that have been lost in the design of modern keyboards," said Dr. Alan Hedge, professor of ergonomics at the Cornell University department of design and environmental analysis.
Given the mechanical action of the keys on manual machines, the act of typing "requires a movement of the whole arm," he said. "You are using larger muscle groups." Furthermore, fingers are in a level position, able to momentarily rest on typewriter keys (which are not activated by the merest touch). But those using a computer keyboard "lift their fingers up," said Dr. Hedge, "increasing pressure on the carpal tunnel," the nerves-and-tendon passage in the wrist that can become inflamed.
Even the obsolescence that has plagued typewriter fans threatens the less nimble members of the computer crowd. Many writers who long ago made the switch to word processing have discovered that they are technological orphans.
Consider the predicament of William Zinsser, a Manhattan author of 15 books (including the million-copy seller "On Writing Well"). In the early 1980's he bought an IBM Displaywriter, and became so proficient that he wrote "Writing with a Word Processor" (1983), "which, though a slender book premise, sold 100,000 copies," he said. "And I evangelized people to the word processor."
His reward? The Displaywriter and its software, Displaywrite 5, soon became obsolete. Mr. Zinsser stubbornly maintained his devotion. He still does. "It's hard to get ribbons for the printer now," he said.
John McPhee, who teaches writing at Princeton University, is also among the afflicted. "I have a seven-year-old computer," said Mr. McPhee. "If it were an automobile, it would be a Stanley Steamer."
Even a portion of the more than 40 million Americans who turned to the 18-year-old industry leader, Microsoft Word, are being passed by. "Most of the people I know are subject to having their word-processing programs constantly upgraded," Mr. Zinsser said. "Simple stuff that is working is now being constantly upgraded for no purpose."
Worse, "now, Microsoft Word has a lot of things in it that seem monstrously inconvenient," Mr. Zinsser said, referring to "helpful" spelling and grammar aids that, like Big Brother, instantly highlight errors in red or green.
Mr. Safer finds it maddening that spell-checking programs "won't accept words they aren't smart enough to know," he said. "The writer is leaving judgments to a brainless collection of electrons."
In more recent versions of Word, a paper-clip cartoon character called the Office Assistant pops up intermittently, unlinking some writers' chains of thought. "It is horribly distracting that they have the little person dancing in front of your eyes," Mr. Zinsser said. (Microsoft says you can turn it off by unclicking the check box on the Office Assistant Options tab.)
Enough people agree with Mr. Zinsser so that this summer, Microsoft will offer the next version of its word processor, Word XP, in which the Office Assistant "is off by default, so you have to make the effort to turn it on," said Lisa Burry, a Microsoft product manager.
Although Mr. Zinsser wondered whether anger at Microsoft would drive users back to typewriters, the fat lady may already have clicked "cancel." Generally speaking, typewriter users are now viewed with "raised eyebrows and a thinly veiled contempt," Mr. Caro put it.
So, have writers all been sold a bill of goods? Mr. Maas, a reluctant convert to the PowerBook G3 who remembers how outrageously long it took to have his manuscripts retyped for his editors, commented, "You know, you can't go back."
Nevertheless, to hedge his bets, Mr. Maas says he still has his Smith Corona electric. "Bob Caro has found out about it, though," he said. "I bet he wants to mine it for parts."
Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company