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Old September 12, 2002, 05:50 PM
D.R.(Don)McArdle
 
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Default SOCIONOMICS and herding is the answer to your question.

Hi Dien

I'm always happy to talk about the economy ,thanks for bring it up.

>You thought we left all that "new economy" hoopla behind.... Well,
>"Wired" magazine is arguing that the "new economy" is coming
>back.... The "recession" we're in is a shallow one, and we're back on
>the way to prosperity.

>Is this for real, or just wishful thinking?

Wishful thinking I'm sure.

>I personally do believe it - I think the economy would have probably
>come back by earlier this year if it hadn't been set back by 9/11.... But
>I think things are coming back on track. I fully expect we have a few
>more years of growth ahead of us....

9/11 was just a small blip in the DJIA (economy). Just like when you
throw a stone in the water, you get a small blip, then the ripples and
the water goes back to normal.

We are NOW in a double dip recession which will end up a depression.
But the gov will not tell you that for at leased 6 to 8 more months that
we are in a double dip recession.

I rely on my information by studying the Kondratieff Wave and the
DJIA Wave over the last 100-150 years. They are just about a mirror
image of each other. You will see the 30 and 70 year cycles jump out
at you. Couple this with The Elliott Wave that explains the above two
waves and you can see where we are headed.

Two books that will explain in detail what's ahead by author Robert R
Prechter Jr .

Book one:
"The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science
of SOCIONOMICS" The purpose of this book is to establish the idea
that in humans, an unconscious HERDING impulse impels social mood
trends and changes that are specifically pattern according to a natural
growth principle and which in turn is the engine of cultural expression
and social action. He goes on to explain the herding that takes place
in the stock market. This is a book everyone should have, buy it or
pick it up at your local library.

Book two:
"Conquer the Crash, you can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression"
This book is what is happing right now. This is the other book you should have
in your home library.

Here is part of a post I put up on another forum.

We will be at war with Iraq within the next 30 days.
The shooting war will last a few days less then 30 days,
but the occupation will last forever.

Oil prices will spike, but we will let Iraq pump 2 to 3 times as much
oil as they are now pumping. The oil prices should then return to $29
- $33 a barrel.

As for Saddam Hussein if we capture him alive, what do we do with him ????

No one has ever told us how we are going to pay for the many wars
we are getting into.

Any ideas ?

Regards,

D.R.(Don)McArdle
Stock Market Trends - Forum
http://www.network54.com/Hide/Forum/213585