Hi Don -

Please don't take this wrong because I respect your endeavors to predict economic cycles with K-wave and Elliott Wave theory.

I, however, take a more objective approach to anticipating major turning points in real estate cycle. My approach, called "The Campbell Method" is based on five key real estate indicators - which I call "Vital Signs" - which careful market research shows are highly correlated with with the direction (up or down) that real estate prices are likely to move.

Basically, my Vital Sign indicators are measuring supply and demand in the real estate marketplace, which we all know is the true driving force in all markets.

So where are real estate prices headed?

That is a difficult (impossible?) question to answer for the reason that you should look at real estate markets from a local, not a national, perspective. This is because all local markets are driven by their own local dynamics; therefore, like the weather, it could be "sunny" in Chicago, for example, and "stormy" in San Diego.

Don, here is my standing rule for determining buying and selling points in real estate markets - or any other market for that matter:

"Whatever your "opinion," whether it is based on K-wave, Elliott wave, or whatever else, MAKE the market itself "confirm" your opinion before you make important market decisions to buy or sell.

In other words - and this is Market Truth #2 in my book Timing the Real Estate Market - "The market is alway right, and you aren't."

I enjoy reading your viewpoints, Don.

Best wishes,

Robert M. Campbell