> Hi Michael,

> Doesn't changing the age from 46.5 to 49
> only shift the graph left or right?

Yes. However, the peak spending is either 49 or it's 46.5. If it changes over time due to lifestyle then that means a constant adjustment.

Just up and changing the peak spending claim and applying it to the whole graph - as he appears to have done - is something you yourself have said is wrong due to lifestyle changes.

Now you're arguing that it only makes a slight difference.

Come on Dien. Stick to your arguements, eh? :o)

> Here's a random ECG strip....

> How will you make this fit the Dow Jones
> Index?

Well... actually it's quite easy...

See where the graph is labeled (1). What follows that is a drop, then a slight rise/level off, followed by another drop and then a rise.

This fits Dent's graph from now and further into the future... a drop, level off slight rise, drop, large rise.

See it?

To make it fit better just "adjust it" for graph recording speed or some other reason and voila!

> Should it be the average age of having the
> FIRST child, or the average age of having
> the "average" child? (Eg. if you
> had 3 kids, you would have to take the age
> at having each of the 3 kids, then taking
> the average.)

> For example, when he had children, my Dad
> was aged 29, 31, and 40. If we were using
> him as an example, should we take age 29 as
> the key figure (the age he had his first
> child), or the average age of these three
> ages - that is, (29+31+40)/3 = 33.3 ?

> Further questions.... Does a child have to
> live at home to be supported by their
> parents? What about children who are
> university students?

> In the USA, the culture is such that usually
> children leave home to go to university
> (often in a different city or state).
> However, these kids are still often
> supported by their parents. Could that
> affect their parents' spending, even if the
> kids are not living at home?

Now you're just being ridiculous. Use your same arguements for the entire graph. From the beginning of the century.

Either peak spending occurs at 49 or 46.5 (why not 46 or 47?). Either people have kids late in their 20s and into their 30s or they have them earlier. And earlier this century, they certainly had them earlier.

So a 22 year old has a child. That means peak spening occurs when that child is 25 to 27. Come on... they are having their own kids at that age.

Dent's theory is interesting. But I am not justing going to accept it without question. Especially when he changes his graphing formula to make it fit. Small technicalities? Maybe. Maybe not. But either it works or it doesn't.

As I said... it's something to keep up my sleeve.

Michael Ross