"Trend recognition is probably the number one skill a product developer has to have."
- Product Developer Bill Myers

Hi Max,

> I wonder if how much of that is true. Right
> time, right place….maybe it just refers to
> coincidence or maybe…. just destiny.

> Sure you can control, to a certain extent,
> your life and the things you do, including
> how you decide to make money.

> I went to a Bill Myers seminar once and when
> it was his turn, he spoke about profiting
> from being in the right place at the right
> time and how one can, to a certain
> degree…control that seemingly almost perfect
> situation, where you profit from being
> ready for the next wave…the next
> fad…the next demand.

I believe it's true.... It's not only Bill Myers who I'm aware of who's consciously used trends to make money from....

Some think you can't make money from fads, but there's a company which I'm aware of which was doing just that, over and over....

The company is Airwalk. They started making shoes specifically for skateboarders, and started as a "specialist" skateboarding shoe company. They grew into their niche, but they wanted to become bigger.... So they hired a specialist in the area of what's "cool," DeeDee Gordon.

DeeDee Gordon spends time looking at what people are wearing, what's the latest fashion the "cool" kids are wearing.

The people who adopt trends (which means all of us) have been divided into five groups....

The first group which adopt a trend have been called the Innovators - the adventurous ones, who dare to try something new.

After that, you'll find a slightly larger group, called the Early Adopters. They don't want to be the first to do something, but they still like to be ahead of almost everybody else.

After that, you get the two largest bulges of people, the Early Majority, then the Late Majority. These two groups represent most of us, who don't want to be the first to try something, but don't want to be the last either.

Finally, come the Laggards, the most traditional group, who don't see any reason to change until they are really forced to.

One thing trend forecasters (like DeeDee Gordon do) apparently do is that they KNOW where to find the Innovators and the Early Adopters, and where to observe what's "cool" with this group.

When you know where to find them, and where to observe them, then you can get a good handle on the early part of a trend, and if you move quickly you can profit from it before the "big bulge" of the Early and Late Majority comes.

Check out Malcolm Gladwell's article, The Coolhunt for more about this and more about DeeDee Gordon.... (And you can read more about this in his book, "The Tipping Point," which is an amazing book.)

Anyhow, Airwalk used this info to stay on top of the trends. They'd get the info on what was going to happen in teen fashion trends from DeeDee Gordon.... Then they'd design a shoe around it. Their turn around time was about a year, and they'd have the shoe ready just as the trend was peaking. It brought them from a small niche shoe company towards the big success they were seeking.

(Though eventually, after many years of success, Airwalk blew it by mistreating their original customer base of skateboarders. That's explained in full in "The Tipping Point.")

I also just finished reading a book today, called "The Manual: How to Have a Number 1 the Easy Way," by Bill Drummond and Jim Cauty. These were the guys behind the "Timelords" and the "KLF," who had some big pop music hits in the late 1980s and early 1990s, including the song "Justified and Ancient" featuring Tammy Wynette.

Believe it or not, at the peak of their success, these two wrote this book on how to craft a number one single. It's worth reading too. :)

PART of what they talk about is finding out what the latest trend is in a good "dance beat"....

For this, they recommend going to nightclubs, purely for research. Watch the crowd, find out what new beat the crowds respond to. When you find something they respond to, get the name of the song, and buy yourself a copy. Then they recommend using the same beat for your own soon-to-be hit single....

When you think about it, they are following the trend technique in finding what's a "cool" trendy beat. They go to where the "innovators" and "early adopters" hang out, in this case the dance clubs. They see what these groups do, then jump on the trend for their own work. When the trend peaks, they're right there with their own single to profit from it.

Lastly, getting back to Bill Myers, you can hear a radio show that he did a few years ago, the Business Breakthrough Radio show. Keep in mind that some of what he says reflects what was happening a few years ago, but what he says about trends is worth catching!

He mostly talks about how he benefits from trends near the end of the interview.... Go to http://homebasedbusiness.com/radio/ and scroll down to "Bill Myers... Live!" It's worth a listen! :)

> I’d say most just go with what feels right,
> regardless of seeing a trend or catching the
> next wave….and they just get lucky.

I think some people do just get lucky, and just happen to be at the right place, at the right time.... But for those who have repeated success, there's a clear formula.

Bill Myers clearly has his formula for choosing the high-tech info products and software he develops and knowing what's the new trend.

Similarly, the KLF had their formula for making their hit singles in the late 1980s and early 1990s by riding the dance beat trends.

And DeeDee Gordon has her formula for finding the start of new fashion trends.

Even knowing that there IS a "formula" can be something of a revelation!

Thanks Max, great post.... I find this a fascinating topic, and finding anything related to this kind of information for me is like walking through the garden and spotting a four-leaf clover. :)

If anyone else knows any more good sources about spotting trends, or if you have any thoughts on this, please share it!

- Dien