Hi Jesse,

> Without a positive, forward-thinking
> attitude, optimism, persistence, and much
> resolve, an entrepreneur is highly unlikely
> to achieve long-term success...

> ...Yet as Dien insightfully points out,
> misplaced optimism on a 'per-project basis'
> can be very dangerous, and can prevent us
> from meeting our objectives.

Yes, many of the largely successful entrepreneurs I've read in detail about look at the "downside" of things as well as the "upside".... Yet (for some reason) MOST books don't touch on this side, they DON'T tell you much (if anything) about how to take care of the "downside"....

As Donald Trump has said, "Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself" !

It's sensible.... If your downside is limited (or even nonexistent), you can afford to fail and then come back with something else which may work....

> I see too many entrepreneurs so intoxicated
> by the excitement of a new project, that
> they somehow rationalize projections which
> are completely unrealistic.

> Does this sound familiar?

> "If I 'only' get a 5% response, I'll
> make $57,324 on this project with hardly any
> work! There's just *no way* I won't get 5%
> with a list this targeted and an offer this
> good!"

Yes! I've thought that way myself in the past.... :)

> Why set yourself up for a deflating crash
> and burn? Instead, figure out how to make a
> profit at 1%, or better yet 1/2% or 1/4%. I
> like to always cut my projections in half,
> and then half again. And if I STILL come out
> ahead, then I can be reasonably certain that
> I have a winner.

That's a great approach!

I like to do what Michael said -- think of backup plans. I've found that some projects lend themselves easily to backup plans, and others don't. Then, I go with the projects where I can have several "fallback" options to make money, so I have multiple ways of making money from the project....

That way, even if I don't make money one way, I'll make it another way.... :)

> As Dan Kennedy said, "Why not play the
> games where the question isn't whether
> you'll win, but by how much?"

Yes, great quote! Thanks! :)

> So there you have it. Strike the optimal
> balance of visionary, big-picture optimism,
> with 'micro-pessimism', and you'll be on
> your way to smashing entrepreneurial
> successes!

> Thanks again, Michael and Dien, for your
> insights. I'd be happy to explore this topic
> further with anyone else who has an anecdote
> or opinion!

Thanks Jesse, you have some great insights! :)

One thing I'm interested in is, does anyone know of other ways of reducing your risk (or eliminating it entirely), in addition to what's already been mentioned? Or even some examples would be good.... This is a topic I'm actively researching right now, and it's clearly VERY IMPORTANT if you want to be a success! YET, there's very little written about how this works in small business, as far as I can tell -- MOST books don't seem to cover this at all!

Thanks Jesse and Michael.... I've really enjoyed both of your insights! :)

- Dien