Dien Rice
November 6, 2012, 01:23 AM
Who will win the presidential election?
Most people will say boring things like - look at the polls! Of course, which polls you look at is up to you... Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/) says one thing (Obama), Unskewed Polls (http://unskewedpolls.com/) says another (Romney)...
However, there are far more accurate ways to know...
One is the sale of Halloween masks. Apparently, 60% of people bought Obama masks, while only 40% bought Romney masks... Which could be a bad omen for Romney...
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-boo-its-halloween-and-the-election-20121031,0,6552064.story
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/23/news/economy/halloween-masks-presidential-election/index.html?iid=SF_BN_River
Another way are sales of 7-11 Coffee Cups! (Blue cup for Obama, red for Romney.)
There are a whole bunch of other wacky ways in these articles...
http://www.voanews.com/content/odd-election-predictors/1539918.html
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1856094,00.html
http://www.cracked.com/article_20139_6-bizarre-factors-that-predict-every-presidential-election.html
http://www.christianpost.com/news/5-weird-presidential-election-predictors-82850/
Now, on a more serious note...
One guy, Greg Mitchell, has another way. He looks at who the various newspapers across the country endorse. He then "weights" it by the circulation of the newspaper. By looking at all the newspapers in a particular state, he predicts (by who gets the most endorsements, "weighted" by circulation), who will win that state. By doing this, he makes a prediction of who will win the electoral college - and hence, the election.
Here's Greg Mitchell's prediction, based on newspaper endorsements...
http://www.thenation.com/blog/170991/my-election-forecasts-dont-lie-obama-will-win-based-key-newspaper-endorsements
More details on the actual newspapers and circulation figures here...
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/2012_newspaper_endorsements.php
Finally, people around the world bet on the US election. This is generally illegal to do within the US itself, but it doesn't stop others outside of the US from betting (with real money) on the election.
Some people think the "betting odds" given are a good indication of who will win...
The two main "betting markets" are Betfair and Intrade. (Note: I believe it is illegal to bet on these websites in the USA, so just be aware of that...)
Best wishes!
Dien (election junkie)
Most people will say boring things like - look at the polls! Of course, which polls you look at is up to you... Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/) says one thing (Obama), Unskewed Polls (http://unskewedpolls.com/) says another (Romney)...
However, there are far more accurate ways to know...
One is the sale of Halloween masks. Apparently, 60% of people bought Obama masks, while only 40% bought Romney masks... Which could be a bad omen for Romney...
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-boo-its-halloween-and-the-election-20121031,0,6552064.story
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/23/news/economy/halloween-masks-presidential-election/index.html?iid=SF_BN_River
Another way are sales of 7-11 Coffee Cups! (Blue cup for Obama, red for Romney.)
There are a whole bunch of other wacky ways in these articles...
http://www.voanews.com/content/odd-election-predictors/1539918.html
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1856094,00.html
http://www.cracked.com/article_20139_6-bizarre-factors-that-predict-every-presidential-election.html
http://www.christianpost.com/news/5-weird-presidential-election-predictors-82850/
Now, on a more serious note...
One guy, Greg Mitchell, has another way. He looks at who the various newspapers across the country endorse. He then "weights" it by the circulation of the newspaper. By looking at all the newspapers in a particular state, he predicts (by who gets the most endorsements, "weighted" by circulation), who will win that state. By doing this, he makes a prediction of who will win the electoral college - and hence, the election.
Here's Greg Mitchell's prediction, based on newspaper endorsements...
http://www.thenation.com/blog/170991/my-election-forecasts-dont-lie-obama-will-win-based-key-newspaper-endorsements
More details on the actual newspapers and circulation figures here...
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/2012_newspaper_endorsements.php
Finally, people around the world bet on the US election. This is generally illegal to do within the US itself, but it doesn't stop others outside of the US from betting (with real money) on the election.
Some people think the "betting odds" given are a good indication of who will win...
The two main "betting markets" are Betfair and Intrade. (Note: I believe it is illegal to bet on these websites in the USA, so just be aware of that...)
Best wishes!
Dien (election junkie)
