How Do You Find The Peak Value?

[Ankesh]

This may be one of the questions that has no definite answer. So I'll pose it as a poll.

If you own a real estate property and are willing to sell it for $125,000 one year back.

But you can't sell that property for over a year. But then, within a week, you get 2 offers.

First offer is for $65,000.

Second offer is a cool $243,000.

Obviously, you reject the first offer. But do you take the second offer? Or do you wait - expecting the market to become even hotter - with the recent activity?

(Assume that yours is a one of a kind property and there is no market comparison. Also assume that the recent activity is not a coincidence. The property has made news.)

How do I find out if the prices will increase or if this is the best offer I can get?

What would you do? Sell or wait?

(This is not a theoretical question. I actually face this problem right now - but its not for real estate. Your opinion would help a lot.)