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Old March 30, 2001, 12:36 AM
Joseph Gardner
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: How to predict long range trends in the stock market....

> Hi Simon, Gordon, Rick, and everyone,

> Times of change are times of
> opportunities....

> Often when people are "downsized",
> a proportion of them will turn towards
> starting their own business(es) to support
> themselves.... So services for the new
> businesspeople probably represents an
> opportunity....

> Also, the plunging stock markets does
> represent a buying opportunity.... Based on
> demographic data, I predict the stock market
> will rebound within at most a year or so
> (though probably not the tech stocks to
> their previous height, since that was an
> irrational "bubble")....

> Harry S. Dent has shown that the US stock
> market generally follows the US birth data
> shifted by about 49 years. In his 1993 book,
> he correctly predicted the stock market boom
> we've enjoyed in the late 1990s as a result
> of this demographic data.... (As far as I
> know, he's the only one to have correctly
> predicted this boom BEFORE it happened.) We
> had the boom in births from 1945 onwards,
> and that meant a boom in the stock market in
> the late 1990s.

> Why shifted by 49 years? The reason why is
> because that's the age which the average
> person spends the most money on products....
> More money spent means higher profits for
> various companies. Higher company profits
> means higher "valuations" for
> these companies and therefore, in general,
> higher stock market prices....

> I don't have the book with me right now (a
> friend borrowed it), but in "The Great
> Boom Ahead" by Harry S. Dent, there's a
> dip in the birth rate data in the early
> 1950s some time, and that's the
> "dip" we're seeing now in the
> stock market.... Based on birth rate data,
> the stock market should boom again within a
> year or so, and keep growing until somewhere
> around 2010 (give or take a couple
> years)....

> After 2010, again based on birth rate data,
> we could start to see a big depression (to
> rival the Great Depression of the 1930s) as
> the baby boomers reduce their spending....
> Although that big depression is still around
> 9 years away, the time to prepare for it is
> now....

> By the way, just because the stock market in
> general will go down, it doesn't mean that
> all industries will go down.... Some
> industries will boom, particularly those in
> which the retired baby boomers will tend to
> spend their money, and also those in which
> the "baby boom echo" generation
> (the baby boomer kids), who will be in their
> 20s, will spend their money....

> Yeah, I know this is a long range view, but
> it actually makes a lot of sense when you
> think about it. The correlation that Harry
> S. Dent has shown between birth rate data
> and stock market indices in the USA has been
> borne out by history, and it was on this
> basis that he predicted the stock market
> boom of the late 1990s BEFORE it happened.
> (He also correctly predicted the current
> Japanese recession, again BEFORE it
> happened.)

> So, I'm riding out the current storm, and
> buying these undervalued stocks now before
> the rebound in the stock market comes again,
> which will probably be later this year or
> some time next year....

> I know some will think I'm off my rocker,
> going loco, around the bend, gone CRAZY for
> talking about such long term trends.... But
> if you want to be safe (and I want you all
> to be), then the time to think about it is
> NOW. As you know, I study - HARD - to find
> out what REALLY WORKS, and Harry S. Dent's
> approach not only makes sense but is borne
> out by history....

> - Dien
Dien

Is there a simpler way to select stocks that will rebound. I've been struggling with William O'Neil system The founder of investors business daily.

Thanks in advance,
Joseph