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![]() > Hi Simon, Gordon, Rick, and everyone,
> Times of change are times of > opportunities.... > Often when people are "downsized", > a proportion of them will turn towards > starting their own business(es) to support > themselves.... So services for the new > businesspeople probably represents an > opportunity.... > Also, the plunging stock markets does > represent a buying opportunity.... Based on > demographic data, I predict the stock market > will rebound within at most a year or so > (though probably not the tech stocks to > their previous height, since that was an > irrational "bubble").... > Harry S. Dent has shown that the US stock > market generally follows the US birth data > shifted by about 49 years. In his 1993 book, > he correctly predicted the stock market boom > we've enjoyed in the late 1990s as a result > of this demographic data.... (As far as I > know, he's the only one to have correctly > predicted this boom BEFORE it happened.) We > had the boom in births from 1945 onwards, > and that meant a boom in the stock market in > the late 1990s. > Why shifted by 49 years? The reason why is > because that's the age which the average > person spends the most money on products.... > More money spent means higher profits for > various companies. Higher company profits > means higher "valuations" for > these companies and therefore, in general, > higher stock market prices.... > I don't have the book with me right now (a > friend borrowed it), but in "The Great > Boom Ahead" by Harry S. Dent, there's a > dip in the birth rate data in the early > 1950s some time, and that's the > "dip" we're seeing now in the > stock market.... Based on birth rate data, > the stock market should boom again within a > year or so, and keep growing until somewhere > around 2010 (give or take a couple > years).... > After 2010, again based on birth rate data, > we could start to see a big depression (to > rival the Great Depression of the 1930s) as > the baby boomers reduce their spending.... > Although that big depression is still around > 9 years away, the time to prepare for it is > now.... > By the way, just because the stock market in > general will go down, it doesn't mean that > all industries will go down.... Some > industries will boom, particularly those in > which the retired baby boomers will tend to > spend their money, and also those in which > the "baby boom echo" generation > (the baby boomer kids), who will be in their > 20s, will spend their money.... > Yeah, I know this is a long range view, but > it actually makes a lot of sense when you > think about it. The correlation that Harry > S. Dent has shown between birth rate data > and stock market indices in the USA has been > borne out by history, and it was on this > basis that he predicted the stock market > boom of the late 1990s BEFORE it happened. > (He also correctly predicted the current > Japanese recession, again BEFORE it > happened.) > So, I'm riding out the current storm, and > buying these undervalued stocks now before > the rebound in the stock market comes again, > which will probably be later this year or > some time next year.... > I know some will think I'm off my rocker, > going loco, around the bend, gone CRAZY for > talking about such long term trends.... But > if you want to be safe (and I want you all > to be), then the time to think about it is > NOW. As you know, I study - HARD - to find > out what REALLY WORKS, and Harry S. Dent's > approach not only makes sense but is borne > out by history.... > - Dien Dien Is there a simpler way to select stocks that will rebound. I've been struggling with William O'Neil system The founder of investors business daily. Thanks in advance, Joseph |
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