I agree!

Disclaimer: I wandered my way through the educational system to a Masters' that included courses in business and marketing. I've noticed (speaking as an outsider) that a lot of the self-discovered formulas are, as you've observed, a case of being in the right place at the right time rather than being the result of careful research and targeting (the way I was taught to do things.)

I eye with skepticism any claims that "THIS WORKS PERFECTLY FOR EVERYONE ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL SITUATIONS!" Truth is, it won't. If the marketer with his lucky technique doesn't know who he's marketing to (which segment of the population; what their demographics are), why they're buying it, and how their tastes change then they'll never be able to duplicate that one lucky break for themselves -- as you've observed.

We studied how ads changed to appeal to different age groups and how ads changed over the course of years (successful ads, like those for autos or soft drinks or public awareness campaigns.) We also studied ads that flopped and learned why this type of marketing didn't work.

It's nice to see a leader in the online marketing community address this issue at long last. We were taught that "know thy audience" was the most important factor. I was surprised that it's been neglected marketing advice for the online group for so long.

Excellent post!