On cycles and the DJIA

Hi,

The picture below shows the inflation-adjusted DJIA since 1800. With all due respect to Don, I can't see a 70-year cyle. What I do see is that for the last 200 years, every time the price action has come out of the top of the channel and then gone back in, it's at least touched the center line before going back up again.

Hope this was useful or interesting.

Best,

- Boyd

Hi Boyd

The 70 year cycle is used as a reference, give it a plus or minus 5 years for a
variable calculation . . . .

1857 plus 70 years = 1927
1932 plus 70 years = 2002
2002 plus 70 years = 2072

Once it (DJIA) is at it's depth it will take 2 to 4 years before we start to come
out of the depression . . . . and the recovery will be slow.

Regards,
D.R.(Don)McArdle

Is this plus or five after a depression actually happens, after full recovery, after the beginning of the turn around, or some other mystical date?

Something happens once. Then again, 70 years later, it happens again - plus or minus five years. And that's it.

So after one repeat you claim a pattern - plus or minus five years?

According to that kind of pattern making, we should have had a World War in 1964 (plus or minus). Hey, 25 years after WWI we had WWII, so following your "pattern after it happens just once again" rule, we shoulda had WWIII around 1964.

I'd be more inclined to follow a pattern based on a 22 year solar flare cycle - at least that could affect whether and thus crops and everything else down the economic line.

Got any data to cross reference with Solar Flare activity?

How about El Nino instances?

I'm serious. That would be Very interesting...

Michael Ross