OMG, guess who I ran into today at the Supermarket...it was none other than...

[GordonJ]

Ol Mister DOOM AND GLOOM. Here is what happened.

The part of ME will be played by...well, me. Mr. Doom and Gloom (MDG) will be played by the other me. For you Seinfeld fans it will be like an encounter between Jerry and Newman.

I'm in the produce department and I see celery is priced at over a dollar more than it was last week...a DOLLAR more, WHY? Wasn't it lettuce that was recalled? Do they now grow celery in the Gulf of Mexico? Was it the flood in TN? What the ______? Why did celery go up so much?

Then I check the bell peppers. YIKES!

I hear his voice.

"Hello Gordon."


ME: "Oh, it's you, Mr. Doom and Gloom. What are doing here?"

MDG: "Just stocking up for the coming hard times."

ME: "Which sky is falling now?"

MDG: "Ha, good one. But it isn't funny to the people who are getting creamed with volcanic ash, is it?"

ME: "Always going to be acts of Nature, not much you can do about those."

MDG: "You could be a good scout and BE PREPARED."

ME: "You know I believe in preparation and actually YELL at people to keep an emergency kit around, just in case."

MDG: "Yea, but you ain't nowheres near prepared for what's about to hit, the PERFECT Storm of Doom and Gloom. Combine the regular acts of Nature, you know, the floods, fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanos and, what am I forgetting, oh the Tsunamis and the EARTHQUAKES...toss in a few man made disasters, like oil spills, stock market crashes, shoddy infrastructure and, well, you're poised for some serious hard times ahead."

ME: "Ya think? Your shouting never changes, same old same old on these ears."

MDG: "Scoff if you want, the rich are buying up gold and silver like it's going out of style, that's a little joke for you Roosevelt types. By the time the dollar hits bottom, you'll be lucky to have 30 cents left over in purchasing power."

ME: "Oh no, it's not the ol devaluation/hyper-inflation coming at us, is it?"

MDG: "According to me, that's exactly what it is."

I continued shopping, did NOT buy the produce, but did buy a couple of extra bags of rice and beans. I mean, you can't eat gold and silver, right?

Ol Mr. Doom and Gloom doesn't worry about the poor, he says they have way to much ammunition to go hungry.

I wonder what the streets of Greece would have looked like if they had the Second Amendment force that we in the USA have?

Well, I just wanted to open the floor for discussion. Any thoughts?

WARNING (pay attention Don Alm)...I'll tolerate a little bit of political positioning, however, there aren't going to be any long rants one way or the other.

The CIVILIZED discussion we can have is whether the storm clouds of hyper inflation and other world factors is going to impact our lives and if so, how? How do you see it?

If you see the GOOD years that lie ahead of us, please tell us why you think things are going to be peachy keen, I need my own ammo against Ol Mr. Doom and Gloom, he ain't going away anytime soon.

And if you think there are some tough times ahead, how do we prepare?

As businesspeople, how do we go about our daily grind and what should we be looking for?

Gordon Jay Alexander
　
　

Hey Gordon,

Just be happy that you're Not living in Italy...

Police: Italy mafias run produce markets...
‎http://tinyurl.com/2bufcaw

Nothing but Bad news these days...

Only, if you really want to Believe in what you Read...

Europe’s medicine is injected and now the pain begins
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1565422/

DOOM... GLOOM and BOOM! ... if you know what I mean...

4 Simple, Surefire Business Ideas for a Bad Economy
http://entrepreneurs.about.com/b/200...ad-economy.htm

http://www.sowpub.com/forum/showthre...ght=recessions
http://www.sowpub.com/forum/archive/index.php?f-3.html

http://mediablips.dailyradar.com/vid...rt-from-trend/
http://www.trendhunter.com/rssfeeds

2010 Trends: 10 and 1/2 Trends to Watch
http://www.entrepreneur.com/trends/index.html

If you haven't met Prahlad Jani just yet...

Could make for some Unbelievable Life learning...

70 years without eating?
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&c...=&oq=&gs_rfai=

Time will tell...

Phil

[GordonJ]

Originally Posted by Phil

Time will tell...

Phil

Phil,

Thnx as always for your digging and finding useful info. Much appreciated.

In Jan. of 08 the writing was on the wall. And as pessimistic as I was, I didn't come close to what happened later that year.

I know most of us here at SowPub took advantage and we've made out like gangbusters the last 3 years. However, I do know scores of people who have lost anywhere from 15% to 40% of their life savings or IRA or whatever retirement account they had and it was a devastating blow for them.

Several here argued there was no such thing as a recession, and well, as you say; "time will tell".

Time marches on. Time and tide wait for no man.

Hopefully most of us never had to deal with the unemployment issue and the caboose is finally catching up to the engine which stopped a couple of years ago.

Thanks for pointing us to the articles which have some good food for thought, and we can now in retrospect, see how we did since Jan. 08 and now we can adjust our businesses for Jan. 13, if they need be adjusted.

Gordon Alexander

[Ankesh]

Thanks Gordon.

My view is a bit different.

My opinion: economy is not about the money at all. Instead, economy is all about Confidence.

If people are over-confident about the future, they will spend money they don't have. Creating a bubble. And the bubble will burst sometime. Because every bubble bursts.

On the other hand, if people are not so confident about the future, they will save more than consume (eg: Japan). And the economy will suffer as people don't exchange goods and services with one another. And as the economy suffers, people's confidence drops furthers - and thus it creates a downward trending spiral loop.

So the trick has always been: make sure the people remain confident about the future. But that they don't become over-confident.

Doesn't matter how things are screwed up right now, or how much debt a country has. If the leaders can imbibe confidence in the people - while making sure there are checks and balances in place that prevent bubble creations, the economy won't suffer.

Its my personal opinion that Obama can maintain that fine balance. But I may turn out to be wrong.

(Personally - I like Ron Paul's ideas the most. But he can't game public confidence like Obama can.)

----------

From the other side of the world, things look very rosy even though we are seeing record inflations. Indian population is very young. And youth brings its own exuberance and confidence. As the population matures over the next 40-50 years, I see India becoming richer and richer. Mainly because Indian leaders are very conservative and do a very good job of making sure we don't see bubbles.

(Eg: India didn't see its banks collapsing from the sub-prime crisis. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/bu...cera.html?_r=1 )
(Note: the above article asks for a NYTimes password to read further. You can skip that by searching for "How India Avoided a Crisis" in Google and then clicking on the NYTimes link. People visiting NYTimes from Google don't require a password...)

It is a good time to invest in India and China and other countries with young populations.

[GordonJ]

Originally Posted by Ankesh

Thanks Gordon.

My view is a bit different.

My opinion: economy is not about the money at all. Instead, economy is all about Confidence.

the trick has always been: make sure the people remain confident about the future. But that they don't become over-confident.

Doesn't matter how things are screwed up right now, or how much debt a country has. If the leaders can imbibe confidence in the people - while making sure there are checks and balances in place that prevent bubble creations, the economy won't suffer.

things look very rosy even though we are seeing record inflations. Indian population is very young. And youth brings its own exuberance and confidence. As the population matures over the next 40-50 years, I see India becoming richer and richer. Mainly because Indian leaders are very conservative and do a very good job of making sure we don't see bubbles.

(Eg: India didn't see its banks collapsing from the sub-prime crisis. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/bu...cera.html?_r=1 )

It is a good time to invest in India and China and other countries with young populations.

Ankesh,

You always bring a rational and balanced view to the table. Let me counter that with my own "crazy" ideas...the Mr. Gloom and Doom vision...

IF the economy is all about confidence, where do the people look to? Where is the leadership? You apparently have good leaders in India and you point to Japan as being responsible. A couple of issues.

India has one HUGE problem (named Pakistan) which has to be the back drop for much decision making...and it will become a thin balance beam for your leaders to walk. I like the youthful exuberance, but the thing about that which "scares" me, like the new wealth being created in China...is that, all too often, youth likes shiny/sparkly.

Such as cars. And it has been predicted that the China/India market for new cars will explode as more infrastructure gets finished. More cars = more oil imports.

And it is my opinion, that OIL is the old tune we'll be singing.

30 years ago there was a call for an "Appollo" like effort in energy...but the USA leadership, which is about 99% contributed to by Big Oil (and thus the mostly whisper campaign against BP Oil {who points the finger at __________} for the Gulf of Mexico diaster.

Where will India and China get their oil from? China has "locked" up several supply sources, including S. American sources.

Is there enough oil for all of us?

When I (the MDG part of me) look through my oil dripping glasses, it looks kind of murky for me.

What is the OIL situation in India?

Gordon Alexander

[Ankesh]

People in the computer R&D field were all worried that Moore's law is coming to an end. We won't be able to increase computer's processing power and decrease its prices further.

And then comes: Memristors
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZAHG3COYYA
Prices of computers etc will keep on falling drastically for a few more decades now. And Moore's law gets a new life.

My point is: when people face constraints, thats the time when they innovate the most.

When pain from lack of oil approaches a dead point, we will find an alternative solution that works cheaper than oil. You can count on it.

----

The biggest barrier to India's progress is not Pakistan or terrorism and warfare. It is corruption.

India is very curropt. And I don't see that changing any time soon. Which means the poorest folks have a very tough time to improve their situation. But if you're well to do already, you'll keep on improving your standard of living. And the richer you are, the faster your standard of living will keep on improving. Creating a huge imbalance.

(Thats why India is a country that has more billionaires than UK and Germany. But it also has the world's biggest slum. The problem with India has always been: even though we have more oil than we require - how do we distribute it to the lowest rungs of the society?)

[GordonJ]

Originally Posted by Ankesh

My point is: when people face constraints, thats the time when they innovate the most.

When pain from lack of oil approaches a dead point, we will find an alternative solution that works cheaper than oil. You can count on it.

----

The biggest barrier to India's progress is not Pakistan or terrorism and warfare. It is corruption.

But if you're well to do already, you'll keep on improving your standard of living. And the richer you are, the faster your standard of living will keep on improving. Creating a huge imbalance.

(Thats why India is a country that has more billionaires than UK and Germany. But it also has the world's biggest slum. The problem with India has always been: even though we have more oil than we require - how do we distribute it to the lowest rungs of the society?)

Ankesh,

I somewhat agree with "reaching the dead point", however, when it comes to OIL, the race is going to be with the clock. Between the time we hit the dead point and the NEW technology may be enough time for some very strange things to occur.

And if the NEW technology is proprietary, will we be trading one source for another, and at what cost?

Corruption comes with power, always has, always will up to the point of the "storming of the gates", be they at the Bastille or the Russian Winter Palace or in the Boston Harbor.

Re: OIL's replacement, you may recall I've been working the last few years on a project, a M0BILE hydro generator, which, along with wind and other alternative power could put a big dent in our dependency of coal and other irreplaceable resources.

AND one of my biggest "concerns" is exactly what you say...the rich getting richer, the poor poorer and in the USA the getting stretched too thin middle class.

Part of OUR corruption is the ability of a BP Oil or any BIG company having their hands in our politicians pockets and their votes.

It won't change, money talks. But here we're seeing more and more; "out with the old, in with the new"...and a resurgance in Nationalism, which doesn't ever play well on the world stage with the exception of the Olympics and professional golf.

Gordon