Is the "New Economy" coming back?

Michael

>Maybe if you weren't so immersed in the news you would be able to see a positive outcome.

I don't know about Boyd, but when I hear the TV News I filter it out in
my subconscious mind, separate fact from fiction, divide by two then I
have a pretty go idea of what is going on.

>positive outcome . . . . ?????

What about the mom and pop that had a nest egg for their retirement of
$100,000 in the stock market a year ago and it's now $40,000. As they are
looking for a "positive outcome" it goes to $10,000 or even lower.

Regards,

D.R.(Don)McArdle
Stock Market Trends - Forum
http://www.network54.com/Hide/Forum/213585

> What about the mom and pop that had a nest
> egg for their retirement of
> $100,000 in the stock market a year ago and
> it's now $40,000. As they are
> looking for a "positive outcome"
> it goes to $10,000 or even lower.

Big falls in the stockmarket happen from time to time when the market is overvalued. There is a floor on how far it can fall, however.

Stocks, after all, are just claims on ownership in real businesses. Let's suppose you have a business earnings $100M per year, and in 2000 it's in the market at $2,000M. Perhaps that's too high, and it drops to $1,000M, a huge 50% drop. While that's huge, it would never drop to something like $500M without a change in the underlying business fundamentals, because if it did, a large investor or group of investors could just buy the company and realise those cash flows themselves for a high return.

So, unless you believe that the fundamental cash flows / earnings underpinning all US stocks is set for a plunge, then there is a "floor" that stocks can go to.

- Thomas.

> I'm surprised to see the optimistic messages
> posted by Dien, Thomas and Steve. Being
> immersed in the news as I am, I find their
> mindset hard to share.

Let me make a number of points.

Firstly, my point was that I expect a lot of growth ahead in the "New Economy", but I'm talking longer-term, driven by the fundamental changes in how people do more things online, and more people go online.

As for when this will happen -- a year, two years, or more -- I have no idea, and make no claims about that.

Secondly, I think the news tends to focus on the present -- what people are doing and thinking now. This may not be a good guide to the future, as crashes and recoveries can happen relatively quickly.

Thirdly, from a valuation/investment perspective.. I tend to follow a fundamental/value/Buffett-like approach, and believe that it's possible to find good performing investments even in a bad market, so long as you do your research and focus on the long-term outlook for a company.

- Thomas.

Hi,

The way I do news is I read discussion groups where people are talking about the news, and then I try to figure out who's making the most sense.

Still doing the Trick Report thing, I guess.

Best,

- Boyd

dno
> Let me make a number of points.

> Firstly, my point was that I expect a lot of
> growth ahead in the "New Economy",
> but I'm talking longer-term, driven by the
> fundamental changes in how people do more
> things online, and more people go online.

> As for when this will happen -- a year, two
> years, or more -- I have no idea, and make
> no claims about that.

> Secondly, I think the news tends to focus on
> the present -- what people are doing and
> thinking now. This may not be a good guide
> to the future, as crashes and recoveries can
> happen relatively quickly.

> Thirdly, from a valuation/investment
> perspective.. I tend to follow a
> fundamental/value/Buffett-like approach, and
> believe that it's possible to find good
> performing investments even in a bad market,
> so long as you do your research and focus on
> the long-term outlook for a company.

> - Thomas.

Don:

> What about the mom and pop that had a nest
> egg for their retirement of
> $100,000 in the stock market a year ago and
> it's now $40,000. As they are
> looking for a "positive outcome"
> it goes to $10,000 or even lower.

And what about the other mom and pop who actually bothered to learn a little about the stock market before investing their money. They have the same stock, but instead of watching it tumble down they short their stock and make a bundle.

And what about the other mom and pop who know that the Dow is "just an average of selected companies," as they tell their grandkids. They invest in companies not attached to the index and the price of their stock goes up!

Or the mom and pop who didn't sit by like statues watching their stock become ten percent of what it had been, and sold their stock when it hit $90k.

Michael Ross

> The way I do news is I read discussion
> groups where people are talking about the
> news, and then I try to figure out who's
> making the most sense.

Good call (find out what's going on by what the "man in the street" thinks). Of course, the trick is to listen to people who have the brains to not be totally influenced by the mass media - and you are able to do that.

Michael Ross

Hi Michael

I agree with you 100% on your three remarks. I call that "thinking smart".
Knowing the market trends and knowing when to get in or out will make
or save your money.

Thinking positive is no help when the ship is sinking.

D.R.(Don)McArdle
Stock Market Trends - Forum
http://www.network54.com/Hide/Forum/213585

> Don:

> And what about the other mom and pop who
> actually bothered to learn a little about
> the stock market before investing their
> money. They have the same stock, but instead
> of watching it tumble down they short their
> stock and make a bundle.

> And what about the other mom and pop who
> know that the Dow is "just an average
> of selected companies," as they tell
> their grandkids. They invest in companies
> not attached to the index and the price of
> their stock goes up!

> Or the mom and pop who didn't sit by like
> statues watching their stock become ten
> percent of what it had been, and sold their
> stock when it hit $90k.

> Michael Ross

Dien,

If the economy is not coming back, then the sales I have received in the past month are purely coincidental, and I doubt that.

My sales per day have almost doubled as compared to 3-4 months ago.

I also have a day job fixing copiers. Over the past year or so, technicians have been almost bored because of the lack of service calls being made by our customers, even during our most busy seasons. It was like a snow ball effect. If no one makes copies because of a lack of business, we don't get service calls.

Well, over the past few months, that has all changed. Now we are busier than ever, getting more calls than we can finish in one day.

Is the economy coming back. Yes, I believe it is.

Dennis Anglin


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