How will war affect business and the stock market?

As you know, there is continual talk of possible war in Iraq....

Without getting too much into the politics of it all - how will war affect day-to-day business? How could it affect the stock market?

Does anyone have any insights? For example, does anyone know how business etc. was affected in the 1990-91 war in Iraq?

Thanks.... I don't know much about this topic, but it could affect all of us....

- Dien

> Without getting too much into the politics
> of it all - how will war affect day-to-day
> business? How could it affect the stock
> market?

> Does anyone have any insights?

Hi Dien,

Most of my business comes from the US. I have the odd customer from Canada, France, and the UK, but mostly US. I have found that the prosperity of my business is indirectly proportional to the economy in the US.

For example: 9/11

With people losing jobs, fear of the future and faced with uncertainty, I think it prompts folks to want to develop some sort of backup plan. Develop something that is theirs so they can have a livelihood if they find themselves downsized and without a job.

So if you offer products or services that will offer security, or something that will allow folks to diversify their income, I think you will do well.

I don't see many sites these days that are tailoring their sales letters to this end. But seeing the huge increase in new business over the last year, I'm wondering is this is something I should be testing?

Best Regards,
Steve MacLellan


homebusiness-websites.com

Hi Steve,

That's really interesting....

I've read that business-related info tends to sell "inversely" to the economy.

As you say, when "times are good", everyone feels very secure (economically), and feel less of a need for business-related info.

But when times are bad, and people are feeling less secure (economically), then it makes sense that more people would like to know how to start a business for themselves.... So sales of business-related info goes up.

I think you're more in a business technical service area in your business (if I'm not mistaken), so I find it interesting that you've found the same thing in your field too.

It's fascinating that there ARE these businesses which work opposite to the general economy. Many people think that when times are bad, EVERYONE's doing badly... but that's just not true.

I guess war would probably tend to be very good for certain businesses too (though I'm not sure for which businesses, except maybe defence contractors).... I'm not sure if it would be the same effect as in an economic downturn....

Thanks for sharing your experience, Steve, that was really fascinating!

- Dien Rice

Ok, I hate to say this,
If the war would cost the US 100 billion.(estimate)
and we would lower the oil prices to 15-18 per barrel it could save the US economy 200 billion.
Also would make some very powerful people in the Bush (secret) camp very rich (or should I say richer).
I hate war and feel very anxious about this becuase it could backfire of couse more than one way.


Turtle Trading explained

Hi Dien,

As for my business (broker of used auto parts) when the economy is slow people tend to hold on to their cars, trucks, vans, and SUV's longer, thus the demand for used parts increases.

As for possible war in Iraq..... I believe there could be a sell - off of some stocks at warp speed.

However, on the other hand.....I believe there could be a buying frenzy of some biochemical, defense contractor, transportation, air lines, and home security stocks.

Also, bond sales may increase.

Just my 2 cents.....

Raymond

-------------------------------------------

> As you know, there is continual talk of
> possible war in Iraq....

> Without getting too much into the politics
> of it all - how will war affect day-to-day
> business? How could it affect the stock
> market?

> Does anyone have any insights? For example,
> does anyone know how business etc. was
> affected in the 1990-91 war in Iraq?

> Thanks.... I don't know much about this
> topic, but it could affect all of us....

> - Dien

If a news article posted on another board is correct, the sniper in Washington area is part
of a terrorist cell, and this is just the
initial try-out of a low-cost terrorist attack
on America.

The author mentioned videos that showed
terrorists practicing drive-by shootings, assassinations on golf courses and of law enforcement officials and home invasions.

All these intended to weaken the American economy. Just look at the impact of the D.C. area
sniper - business traffic off, events cancelled,
people afraid to go out.

We may soon find out how fragile the American economy is.

Interesting article on Elliot Wave Theory and where top practicioners of this method see the market headed next.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18126428

> As you know, there is continual talk of
> possible war in Iraq....

> Without getting too much into the politics
> of it all - how will war affect day-to-day
> business? How could it affect the stock
> market?

> Does anyone have any insights? For example,
> does anyone know how business etc. was
> affected in the 1990-91 war in Iraq?

> Thanks.... I don't know much about this
> topic, but it could affect all of us....

> - Dien

Last time, my stock of Purple Flying Bippy Dippies plunged, but my stock of Sand Colored Army Widgets shot through the roof.

I got sick and tired of seeing the same refugees crossing the border, over and over again. Oh wait, that was Kosavo.

Iraq...

Last time it was dark and not too many greenish things flying through the air could be seen. Although, Christiane Armonpour's (sp?) report from a building which had an anti-aircraft gun on it, that fired a few shots during her report, was interesting.

What was the question?

Oh, stock market...

It all depends on how much the media decides we will see. And what else, if anything, is going on.

Go to war with Iraq while snipers run around taking pot shots all over your city, while the media only concentrates on those things, and the market will react a certain way. If there is little media coverage and there are no snipers in your city, then the market will react differently.

The price of gold will probably rise - it always seems to rise during a conflict.

Gas stations will charge higher for gas because they can, and it will be blamed on the "war."

The Government may or may not create a new tax. Hey, income tax was introduced into Australia in 1915 to pay for the war. I guess they forgot to remove it. :o)

Newspaper sales will increase - as long as there are no snipers in your city making everyone scared to go out and buy a newspaper.

Direct mail response rates will drop.

Gas Mask sales will increase if the media talks about those kinds of weapons or attacks in which a gas mask would be used.

Israel will get antsy.

Iraq will say it's an attack against all Muslims.

Iran will watch it all.

Russia and France will ask for restraint.

The UN will once again be seen to be as useless as The League of Nations.

I'll get bored listening to the same things over and over and will surf the channels for some sport to watch - like The World Series (Go Angels!)

Life will go on.

Michael Ross

dno
> If a news article posted on another board is
> correct, the sniper in Washington area is
> part
> of a terrorist cell, and this is just the
> initial try-out of a low-cost terrorist
> attack
> on America.

> The author mentioned videos that showed
> terrorists practicing drive-by shootings,
> assassinations on golf courses and of law
> enforcement officials and home invasions.

> All these intended to weaken the American
> economy. Just look at the impact of the D.C.
> area
> sniper - business traffic off, events
> cancelled,
> people afraid to go out.

> We may soon find out how fragile the
> American economy is.