A direct response mystery...

Ok. here's my latest sob story...

I placed a full-page ad in a trade journal. The ad directs the reader to a website.

I can track how many people go to the site.

The site gives them 3 ways to buy:

1) Send me a check

2) Pay via credit card

3) Pay via paypal.

Here's the mystery...

On Jan 2, I went to the post office to get the mail. There were 2 orders -- both postmarked 12/29.

Meanwhile, orders were coming in via cc's + paypal. The first cc/paypal orders started 12/27. As the magazine is delivered, it hits the country in waves (sent 3rd-class mail), depending on geography.

So, I'm expecting the orders to fit into some kind of bell curve pattern. None, then some, then lots, then some , then none.

But -- and here's the real mystery -- when I went to the mailbox today (1/7) -- the mailbox was EMPTY!

That means, out of all the people who visited the site, many ordered via cc + paypal, but only TWO people (on the SAME DAY), bought using a check?!?!

No bell curve pattern. No "doubleday." Just a cosmic coincidence of TWO + ONLY TWO people choosing to buy that way, BOTH doing it on the same day -- then NO ONE ELSE thereafter?!?! Even though dozens + dozens of people have viewed the site -- and many have ordered using the online methods.

It just doesn't make any sense to me.

Any ideas on how this could be?

Thanks!

-- TW

[Ankesh]

Two sales offline is too small a number for prediction for further offline sales. Statistically insignificant.

Both the sales coming on the same day could just be a co-incidence.

If it would have been 20 sales by cheque on 1 day - and then no more - then it would have been worth it to investigate. But statistics don't really work in giving a good idea with such small numbers.

The only thing you may want to see is if the 2 offline mails came from the same area or came from places very near to the mailing address you used or not... (I am assuming that your target audience is specific and similar. If its a general audience - then you may also want to see if you can find any commonalities between the 2 buyers.) But I doubt if you'll find anything of significance.

If you're just using some basic tracking method this time...

Try the following with all your future Ad campaigns and don't forget to regularly keep testing things...
http://www.sowpub.com/forum/showthre...acking+offline

Phil

TW,

Ain't no biggie.

Run an ad. Get no calls all day. Then within 15 minutes you get four calls.

That's what randomness brings. Random does not mean... evenly spaced all nice and neat. It means, sometimes you get calls, sometimes you don't. Sometimes they are evenly spread. Sometimes they come in bunches.

Michael Ross

I see what you're saying Michael.

I still think it's weird -- and to make it even 'weirderer,' I went to the mailbox on Thursday (Jan 8), and it was STILL empty.

On Fri. I sent *myself* a letter (!), just to make sure it really is POSSIBLE to receive mail since the original 2 (lone) orders that were postmarked way back on Dec. 29. -- Yup. I'm that paranoid.

-- TW

Still no addt'l orders via the (snail) mail -- the only thing in the box was the letter I sent myself. So, it's not a post office problem.

I just think it's a mystery (see OP).

Oh well.

-- TW

PS: Luckily, orders are still coming in via the web.

TW,

In your ad you direct viewers to your website. You give them 3 ways to pay. Only two choose to mail you their payment, while the rest pay online.

No mystery. You gave your customers what they wanted. CHOICES!!!

Those two chose snail mail, for whatever reason, but everyone else wanted to "BUY NOW", avoid looking for an envelope, then hunting down stamps, "Oh...uhh... what is the going rate for stamps these days?" "Ah forget this I'll just pay online."

The mystery for me, "Why would anyone want to mail a check through the mail?"

Yes, I see that (they chose payment method).

But only two doing the the snail mail way -- on the same day -- then no others?

Cosmic coincidence.

-- TW

The good news is, the conversion rate of my site is pretty good (8.9%).

What I'm amazed at is the consistency of that rate.

If I take a big enough sample, it always comes out to that %. Early on, later, makes no difference. 8.9%.

I think that's cool. The rate itself is good. But that it always comes to the SAME rate, no matter how/when you slice it, is very cool (+ calming).

-- TW

with a rate like that , you have to be doing something great !

maybe bribe em a little more to get the rate up ...know that doesnt have anythign to do with the question , but I had to commend you on getting a response rate that high !

congrats