How will it affect you if Russia invades Ukraine?

[Dien Rice]

Many people may think... Ukraine is a long way away. It won't affect me...

In fact, it has affected you and everyone else. Gasoline prices have reached a new 7½-year high...

That's because Russia is a major oil and natural gas producing nation... Anything which can disrupt the supply of oil sends the gasoline prices soaring...

I'm currently working with some people in the money transfer business. Money transfers are an interesting business... When there's disaster, it's good for business. That's because people send more money to their family back home in the disaster area, to help them out...

If Russia goes ahead with a full-blown invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian migrants around the world will be sending more money back to their families in Ukraine, to help them to survive...

Another business which would be doing well is the arms trade. Arms and other military equipment are already being sent not only to Ukraine, but the the nations surrounding Ukraine and western Russia too, like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia...

Those are some consequences... I'm sure there are more I haven't thought of... Any thoughts on this?

Best wishes,

Dien

[Dien Rice]

Here's an article about how Russia's war in Ukraine will affect the average person in Canada (and also in the USA and many other places)...

They mainly point out that...

- Gasoline prices will rise, because Russia is a major oil exporter. Both the USA and Canada import oil from Russia.

- Wheat prices will rise, so subsequently food prices could rise. The reason why is because both Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters.

- Interest rates may rise.

From energy to food prices and even inflation, here's how war in Ukraine could impact Canada's economy
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ukr...pact-1.6362992

Also, the price of gold has gone up - which I should have foreseen! (Gold pretty much always goes up in times of turmoil...) Some believe it will go higher...!

Gold price could hit $2,000 'in only a matter of days' - analysts
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-2...-analysts.html

Best wishes,

Dien

Originally Posted by Dien Rice

Many people may think... Ukraine is a long way away. It won't affect me...

In fact, it has affected you and everyone else. Gasoline prices have reached a new 7½-year high...

That's because Russia is a major oil and natural gas producing nation... Anything which can disrupt the supply of oil sends the gasoline prices soaring...

I'm currently working with some people in the money transfer business. Money transfers are an interesting business... When there's disaster, it's good for business. That's because people send more money to their family back home in the disaster area, to help them out...

If Russia goes ahead with a full-blown invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian migrants around the world will be sending more money back to their families in Ukraine, to help them to survive...

Another business which would be doing well is the arms trade. Arms and other military equipment are already being sent not only to Ukraine, but the the nations surrounding Ukraine and western Russia too, like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia...

Those are some consequences... I'm sure there are more I haven't thought of... Any thoughts on this?

Best wishes,

Dien

[Dien Rice]

For "armchair generals" (like myself), this may interest you...

What is the strategy in Ukraine?

I can't go into it all, but I've found very illuminating some of the commentary by geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan...

In this video, he points out something very interesting... Russia started the war at dawn, during light.

Unlike the USA, which often starts wars in the dead of night.

The reason why? Russia doesn't have a good supply of night-vision technology... So they need daylight to operate effectively.

This leaves a possible strategy open - which is (he implies), for the USA to supply Ukrainians with night-vision technology. With that, the Ukrainians could better rule the night, compared to less-well-equipped Russians...

(He talks about this about 9 minutes in...)



Ukraine and Russian Invasion Paths | Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LccNVCBmgs

It is highly unlikely the US will send any troops to Ukraine itself.

The reason why is because fighting the Russians directly could start WWIII.

The US is more likely to try to help Ukrainians through equipment supplies, and also sanctions...

(This is originally what happened in Afghanistan when the then Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in the 1970s. The USA didn't enter, but supplied those fighting the Soviets with military equipment. The Soviets/Russians finally exited in 1989. The USA didn't enter Afghanistan until the Soviets/Russians were long gone, in 2001...)

Best wishes,

Dien

[GordonJ]

There are those, whom, believe, the old timers, Putin et al, WANT a war.

They want to go out with a bang. Old KGB guys, choking on the dissoultion of the Soviet Empire, with a belief of destiny, are ready to push the button.

Is this the beginning of the END?

Gordon

Originally Posted by Dien Rice

For "armchair generals" (like myself), this may interest you...

What is the strategy in Ukraine?

I can't go into it all, but I've found very illuminating some of the commentary by geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan...

In this video, he points out something very interesting... Russia started the war at dawn, during light.

Unlike the USA, which often starts wars in the dead of night.

The reason why? Russia doesn't have a good supply of night-vision technology... So they need daylight to operate effectively.

This leaves a possible strategy open - which is (he implies), for the USA to supply Ukrainians with night-vision technology. With that, the Ukrainians could better rule the night, compared to less-well-equipped Russians...

(He talks about this about 9 minutes in...)



Ukraine and Russian Invasion Paths | Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LccNVCBmgs

It is highly unlikely the US will send any troops to Ukraine itself.

The reason why is because fighting the Russians directly could start WWIII.

The US is more likely to try to help Ukrainians through equipment supplies, and also sanctions...

(This is originally what happened in Afghanistan when the then Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in the 1970s. The USA didn't enter, but supplied those fighting the Soviets with military equipment. The Soviets/Russians finally exited in 1989. The USA didn't enter Afghanistan until the Soviets/Russians were long gone, in 2001...)

Best wishes,

Dien

[MMacGillivray]

I hate watching the unfolding horror in Ukraine; it would be dreadful if it tipped the world into WWIII and that's why Ukraine is getting supported by countries around the world with sanctions against Russia, military hardware, financial and other support. They keep asking for NATO support and yet it doesn't appear to be forthcoming because that would give Putin the encouragement to widen the aggression to include surrounding countries (at a very minimum).

I suppose we all personalise the trauma of events like this; I have family in Germany, friends in Finland, Sweden and Switzerland, know people in Spain and France. It's easy to get overwhelmed by fear that they will somehow be sucked into this mess.

We have a family wedding in Italy during the summer - will that happen, I wonder??

The world seemed gloomy enough when we were worrying about Covid; it's several shades darker now.

Stay safe, stay well, everyone.

[GordonJ]

While the West was distracted, with immigration, Covid, consumerism...that cagy old Taxi driver had a PLAN. He took the temperature of the world, and only after lining up a strategy to wait out sanctio.ns, he sprung his trap.

What we see is a world, Europe and USA especially, caught off guard and stunned like a deer in the headlights.

We could see a rapid end, IF Ukraine succumbs politically, because other than humanitarian support, big reluctance to be a part of it.

I know a lot of comparison to Germany's invasion of Poland which set off WW II. And there are parallels, minus the NUCLEAR options.

I feel for all of Great Britain and Europe, we have the might, but I doubt the WILL to engage Putin on the battlefield.

Hopefully the rich Oligarchs fleeing Russia have enough juice to keep Putin at bay, but a mad and hungry dog hardly obeys, Ramsey Snow (Bolton) of GOT learned that lesson.

Unfortunately, for all of us, there isn't a John Snow out there to deal with Putin, so, stay safe and get prepared as best you can.

Gordon

Originally Posted by MMacGillivray

I hate watching the unfolding horror in Ukraine; it would be dreadful if it tipped the world into WWIII and that's why Ukraine is getting supported by countries around the world with sanctions against Russia, military hardware, financial and other support. They keep asking for NATO support and yet it doesn't appear to be forthcoming because that would give Putin the encouragement to widen the aggression to include surrounding countries (at a very minimum).

I suppose we all personalise the trauma of events like this; I have family in Germany, friends in Finland, Sweden and Switzerland, know people in Spain and France. It's easy to get overwhelmed by fear that they will somehow be sucked into this mess.

We have a family wedding in Italy during the summer - will that happen, I wonder??

The world seemed gloomy enough when we were worrying about Covid; it's several shades darker now.

Stay safe, stay well, everyone.

[Glenn]

Thanks Dien/Gordon,

Putin is holding up his Nukes for all to see.

Sure.

That Since Biden pulled out of Iraq.

He will Do Nothing Militarily.

And he is Right.

So except for EVERYTHING INFLATION.

No change for the Rest of us.

Glenn

P.S. - Anybody have a Crystal Ball on Which Dictator will SEE his Chance?
When Putin Pulls this off - Others will Follow.

[GordonJ]

Is an invasion of a sovereign country, creating refugees, untold deaths of civilians NOT doing something militarily?

EVERYTHING INFLATION? This does not represent CHANGE for the rest of us?

At least you didn't give us a glass half full of how to be a profiteer off the Ukraine invastion, so, thanks for that.

Sort of reminds me of a couple of years back, when us glass half empty guys were concerned about Covid, while you glass half full guys were saying, it is just the flu, no big deal.

Gordon

Originally Posted by Glenn

Thanks Dien/Gordon,

Putin is holding up his Nukes for all to see.

Sure.

That Since Biden pulled out of Iraq.

He will Do Nothing Militarily.

And he is Right.

So except for EVERYTHING INFLATION.

No change for the Rest of us.

Glenn

P.S. - Anybody have a Crystal Ball on Which Dictator will SEE his Chance?
When Putin Pulls this off - Others will Follow.

[Dien Rice]

Hi Margaret,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts!

It is a very difficult time, I feel... I'm very cautious regarding Covid still (because of pre-existing medical conditions that make it more dangerous for me, according to the medical experts)...

And now - even though I'm a long way away in Australia - thoughts are starting to come into my head on how I'm going to "bug out" to the outback with my wife and toddler daughter if a nuclear war starts... I think the chance is low that a nuclear war happens, but while the chance is small, I think it's not zero...

But then, I give thanks I'm not living in Kyiv or in another Ukrainian city...

I think Putin made a HUGE mistake, and did not foresee the unity of the West... They say the economy of Russia will be destroyed. Unless they can come to some kind of peace deal, Russia will probably also be dealing at least with guerrilla warfare against them in Ukraine for years to come...

And there is some indication Putin did not plan to stop at Ukraine. There are reports he planned to continue to invade Moldova... and others have speculated he would also love to take over Poland, and the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia too... (Part of the problem for him for that, though, are that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are all NATO states... Whereas Ukraine and Moldova are not... Invading a NATO state automatically triggers war against *all* NATO states...)

I can't go into details, but I'm doing consulting for some people in Switzerland, who are establishing a specific kind of business in Lithuania... So I'm talking (via video) with a Lithuanian team related to my work every week...

Hopefully those of us outside of Ukraine will get out of this safely, and I hope the best for the people of Ukraine too!

Thanks again, Margaret!

Best wishes,

Dien

Originally Posted by MMacGillivray

I hate watching the unfolding horror in Ukraine; it would be dreadful if it tipped the world into WWIII and that's why Ukraine is getting supported by countries around the world with sanctions against Russia, military hardware, financial and other support. They keep asking for NATO support and yet it doesn't appear to be forthcoming because that would give Putin the encouragement to widen the aggression to include surrounding countries (at a very minimum).

I suppose we all personalise the trauma of events like this; I have family in Germany, friends in Finland, Sweden and Switzerland, know people in Spain and France. It's easy to get overwhelmed by fear that they will somehow be sucked into this mess.

We have a family wedding in Italy during the summer - will that happen, I wonder??

The world seemed gloomy enough when we were worrying about Covid; it's several shades darker now.

Stay safe, stay well, everyone.

[MMacGillivray]

Hi, Dien - I am envious of folks who live on the other side of the world, although I know that the temperatures would kill me! On the other hand, we live a few miles from the Faslane Naval Base and Coulport where the UK Navy has it's nuclear subs - so it's not difficult to imagine experiencing a short, hot blast if things really do get out of control!

I hope that someone finds a way to stop the horrendous war and also to bring some order back into the world economy. The sanctions hurt many innocent people and the economic reverbations are going to be profound, I fear.

Best
Margaret