Making The Sale...

[Ankesh]

Originally Posted by Dien Rice

As you point out, you could say the same for practically any new "trend", I think. Nowadays, everybody uses computers, but 30 years ago, they were mainly used by geeky hobbyists (which is the background people like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs came from). So, 30 years ago, they were "extreme"...

Precisely. I forgot who said this, but the quote went like:

The future is already here. Its just unevenly distributed.

Not all the extremes of today will become the mainstream of tomorrow. But quite a few will. I've long been fascinated by what new thing remains a fad and what new thing hits the mainstream. Which idea has legs?

I think, the understanding of the past helps a lot in predicting the future.

For example, I just read about a new sport that I predict will be quite big in the next 10-15 years. The sport is "Urban croquet."

Its a modification of croquet - and can be played anywhere. You don't need to search for gardens to play the game on. The game was created by an industrial designer for her thesis.

I think its only been played on a couple of college campuses till now. But it has the potential to go big. Because something like it has already been a grand success before. And there aren't any big resistance factors to slow the growth of the sport.

Its one of the few "outdoor" games that girls and boys can play together - and have an equal chance of winning.

Another big hit I think will be the segway. It will come down in price once the patents have expired. And then you'll see segways everywhere.

Because - they require no fuel to run. And are easier to drive then the bicycle. The only thing stopping its success is the high prices.

Even with the high prices, they are growing by 50% each year. And selling I think about 30,000-35,000 Segways a year. If they start costing as less as bikes do, millions of people will buy them.

Another new sport that will then gain prominence is "Segway Polo." Playing polo on Segways instead of on horses.

Originally Posted by Dien Rice

Your comments on "authenticity" are good too. I like to think that "authenticity" will always be in "vogue", but I dunno.

I don't think authenticity will ever be out of vogue either. But there is a pendulum between "Style" and "Substance."

Sometimes, the society will focus on style more than substance. Other times, they will focus more on substance than style.