The Big Billionaire Gamblers (may be controversial)

Hi Bob,

Thanks Bob, Michael, and Jason -- all very interesting stuff! :)

Several years ago, I was getting low on money.... so I figured I knew how to make money. I'd make it at the casino.

I consulted with a friend of mine who has a lot of experience gambling, and he loaned me a book about blackjack.

The book was full of tables which told you pretty much what action you should take (hit, pass, split, etc.) depending on the cards you had, and the dealer's card that was showing, to give you the best possible chance of winning.

However, even using this method, about the best odds you had was something like 49.5 % chance of winning -- still less than 50%. The (only) way to get OVER 50% is by card-counting -- though of course, the casinos don't like that.

Anyway, I thought I'd start with just this method first (without the card counting). I memorized the table in the book, and practiced first by using it with a blackjack computer program I downloaded from somewhere.

Then, ready to roll, I headed for the casino. (All Australian cities seem to have fully-fledged casinos nowadays....)

Actually, I did pretty well. I didn't bet very high, and over about a month I built my winnings up to around $500. That's nice for a university student. :)

But then, my luck began to change, and I lost it all -- plus an extra $50 -- in one night. That's when I decided to quit.

I figured that there must be better ways to make money.... The problem with casinos is that if you really do know how to win (like by card-counting at blackjack) -- even if they don't catch you explicitly card-counting, if you keep winning large amounts consistently they'll still ban you. The casino always wins in the end.

Seeing the movie "Casino" with Robert de Niro also didn't encourage me! I like my bones intact, thanks.... :)

(By the way, after saying all that, some people really do have a serious addiction to gambling.... It's important to know the serious down-side to casinos.... I haven't played blackjack for several years....)

> Re investing games, Robert Kiyosaki (of Rich
> Dad/Poor Dad fame) has a couple of board
> games out called Cashflow I & II that
> teach basic and advanced investing, money
> management, options, etc. The commodity
> trader's coach Van Tharp uses them in his
> trader training programs.

I have Cashflow 101 (the first one) -- it's pretty good. It mainly teaches you about real estate investment.... Stocks also appear in the game, but the game is not sophisticated enough to really teach you much about stocks (in my opinion). But for real estate -- from what I can tell -- it's great. :)

I think simulation games will probably become bigger and more popular -- both the "board" kind (like Cashflow 101 or Monopoly) and the "computer" kind....

They are a *fantastic* way to learn without losing "real" money. I found that playing Cashflow 101 really starts to change the way you think, and the way you view things. That's something you don't get from just reading....

> Simulations are a great way to at least
> learn the framework of a situation so when
> the realworld unexpected situations hit, you
> can cover the basics without thinking and
> innovate from there to handle the
> unexpected.

Yes, good point....

By the way, does anyone else recommend any other business or investment games they know of? I'd be very happy to learn about more.... :)

Thanks,

Dien

With casinos, the best odds will still always work out in the casino's favour in the end.

Take Roulette. I can bet on Red or Black for odds that double my money - I bet $10 I win $10. Sounds good, right? Problem is, the Zero is green. So the chances of getting Red or Black are not quite 50/50.

If I bet on a single number I get paid from odds of 36 to 1. But there are 37 spots on the wheel. There's that darn zero again. And there's that small percentage which places the odds in the hands of the casino.

What this means is, if I play and play and play, the averages will have me see my money go into the hands of the casino, eventually.

Your story of the cards was a good example. You never had a chance to win anything. Eventually your money was going to leave you.

Onwards.

Simulation... it's not really a game you know. It's serious.

The defense department uses simulation a great deal. First with virtual equipment to train - basics and combat situations - and then with "war games" to add an extra bit of realism.

Pilots and flight simulators.

Fire and rescue crews simulate disasters and carry out procedures all the time.

The CPR dummy to simulate a person who needs mouth to mouth.

All of these things are simulations. All teach and help keep skills nice and sharp.

Jason wrote in his post,


GRUNT! It's that deep down feeling that gets you through when most others fail - like a diesel engine! Sometimes you just need to throw caution to the wind, roll up your sleeves, and as the say in Australia ... Have A GO!, make a bet, hold your poker face, stick to your guns, and roll over whatever gets in the way.

And that final point is what most people cannot do - and for what it's worth, it's also the hardest thing to teach someone - I think in most cases it's the reason why people dont succeed.

They don't fail, they just don't make it to the line whens it's needed.


I agree with it inasmuch as it being a reason for failing. But where I disagree is with the "it's also the hardest thing to teach someone" part.

I believe it can be taught. By simulating it.

To me, the hardest thing in the world to do would be to shoot another human being.

The army knows this is a hard thing for a person to do. So they simulate shooting a human. Soldiers learn to shoot human shapes. After a while it then becomes easier for them to shoot the enemy.

Now, if you can make it easy for a person to shoot another person by having them run through a simulation, you can surely have someone "Have a Go" by running them through a no-risk simulation.

Because it all depends on WHY they won't have a go.

Mostly it's money.

A lot of people bought the Chattel Report. Now even though it's a great product, not everyone who bought it will even try it. Why? Because it means risking money on doing something they've never done before.

I'm sure if a game existed which simulated the Chattel Report more people would "Have a go".

They'd play and play and play. All the while they'd be learning and gaining a certain level of experience and CONFIDENCE. And they'd be more willing to "Have a go". Why? Because as you said Dien, "they will view things differently".

They'll see it's not so hard after all. Oh sure not everyone will go out and "Have a go" but far more will.

I don't have CASHFLOW, but from what I understand from what I've heard, it teaches about investing. Which is good. BUT, does it teach you how to get hold of the money you're going to use to do this investing? Does it allow you to practice basic business - buy low and sell high, stock keeping and cash records, etc.? Do the other players come into the game as competition and thus simulate a real "market"?

Now about other types of simulation...

With regards to business simulation... I'm not aware of anything that's on the market currently which is anything more than a game of chance. Though, there are whispers in the wind about something coming.

I do know there's a game which teaches Australian's how Parliament works. It's called Parliament and was created after a guy took his kids to Parliament to show them how it worked and discovered that even there the answer couldn't be found.

So he created a game which explained it. And it's endorsed by Government too. And, since he developed it I believe he also created a similar game for Canadians to learn how their Parliament works. (perhaps he could create a game to teach Australians the words of our national anthem :o))

A while back I mentioned an idea of turning the Square One Workshops into a game. As I think of it again now, I think a good starting game could be one which teaches the POA.

As each exit is approached and delt with a certain CONFIDENCE and BELIEF of ability would grow. Sure people'd know it's a game. But it'd still work because the game would be a simulation and imprint on the subconscious to a degree.

Personally I'd like to see more educational games out there. They'd help keep our skills sharp when not in use. And would make it easier for our children to learn skills without the time and finances it's taken most of us. And both of those kinds of investment - self and kids - are the best kinds of investments.

Michael (Game Boy) Ross.

P.S. Imagine a public company whose revenue comes soley from sales of a "How to invest in the stock market" game. HA!