Is the real estate bubble about to burst?

Hi,

You wrote:
> Okay. Assume Inflation. What is your Plan Of
> Attack?

I'd better discuss this with you via email if you'd like.

One interesting thing is I recently saw a list of items that are said to be "objects of permanent value." Things like gold, stamps, rare books, silver, non-gold U.S. coins, masterpiece paintings, diamonds, farmland, etc. I said to myself "Hey, that's the kind of stuff richies buy!" Then I did a Homer Simpson-like 'D'oh!' See, I'd always felt that richies bought Rembrandt paintings just to get an ego-stroke when they say them hanging on their rainforest-mahogany walls. It occured to me that maybe the Rembrandt wasn't an expression of vanity but rather an exchange of paper money for an "object of permanent value."

You wrote:
> Now. Assume Deflation. What is your Plan of
> Attack?

Buying cool stuff when the price gets low enough.

You wrote:
> Which one, in your mind, is the worst case
> scenario?

Living in crude huts made of hundred dollar bills wouldn't be very fun.

You wrote:
> If you go with that plan and it turns out
> different, will you be worse off? Can you
> adapt to the other plan quickly?

This might be another email topic if you'd like.

You wrote:
> Economy. Is it "good" or
> "bad" in YOUR eyes? What evidence
> do YOU see? Now what are other people
> saying... what do you SEE? What does what
> you see mean?

That's a very good point! As are your observations of taking readings on the economy by observing what's actually going on around you.

You wrote:
> CPI and all that has always been a bunch of
> mumbo-jumbo in my opinion. The man on the
> street is informed of those rising or
> falling CPI figures as if that means
> something to him. When all he realy knows is
> that the price of his steak has risen while
> a can of baked beans has gone down. Gas
> prices are anyone's guess - and there is no
> collaberation between gas companies even
> though they all seem to raise and lower
> their prices by the exact same amount in the
> same hour on the same day.

The man on the street has been hit with so much strange stuff (weird diseases, terror alerts, the possibility of being attacked at any moment, all the stuff they show on the TV news) that he's adopted a weary "Whatever..." attitude. He's shell-shocked.

You wrote:
> These non-scientific indicators give me a
> better "take" than some $200,000+
> a year analyst on the 37th floor of downtown
> Manhattan, who plays golf three times a week
> at the $10,000 a year membership golf club.

Good point.

You wrote:
> So, Boyd... forgetting about what the
> "experts" say... what do your eyes
> and ears tell you?

I'm an internet recluse, I barely set foot outside my room, all I know is what I see on these three computer screens in front of me.

Thank you very much for your astute observations. You have tons of common sense, which is misnamed since it's getting so uncommon these days.

Best,

- Boyd