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Re: Odds Not Fixed Make Things Worse.
A very good question, Simon.
One I had myself for a while. Then a while back I read “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas. He compared trading to a casino. Odds to odds. Chances to chances. And said overall, this is why you lose at gambling. But then… ah, the card counter. Takes him a while to figure it out, but once he has a system he can follow with discipline (the hard part), he can get the odds slightly in HIS favor over a number of trades. And not just because the market tends to go up over time. I’m talking about averaging over a number of 20/30/50 trades in a month. “But the card counter gets thrown out once the casino discovers him.” Yes, but there’s no security to throw out the slightly more experienced, disciplined player in the market. Douglas eventually moves past the card counter example and says the way to think about it is you want to BE the casino. Inevitable small losses and a few big ones, but with enough of an advantage to come out ahead over a period of time. Thanks for starting this interesting thread, Robert. Success, Erik Lukas P.S. Douglas’s first book, The Disciplined Trader, should also be required stock market reading. P.P.S. I would also say that most people who try to play their hand at swings and scalps will lose. But there are a few who don't. |
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