MORE brainstorming via faux case studies...or, what advice do you have for...

Originally Posted by Phil

6. Learn about the latest business trends. Whether you follow the stock market or routinely read the finance section of your favorite newspaper, it's important to stay attuned to what's new in the business sector.

On the radio today, they were talking about the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. They said that due to the downturn in the oil business during the early 80's, when the price fell to $10 per barrel, new people were not coming into the business, and many experienced people lost their jobs and had to go into something else.

The consequence was that at the time of the spill, not a single hand on the rig had more than six months of experience. The implication was that a crew with years of experience would not have let the accident happen.

My industry, aerial application of farm chemicals, has had a similar trend. Also in the early 80's, improved airplanes came out that were capable of performing much more work than earlier models. The result was that fewer pilots could do more work than in earlier years. Along with that 'improvement' came different chemicals that further reduced the need for pilots.

In cotton, for example, in the olden days, once the spraying started one could count on ten applications per field. Horribly toxic chemicals were used that killed not only the pest, but all the beneficial insects as well, meaning that the killing had to continue on a regular basis as new generations hatched out.

Introduction of the the new ovicides reduced spraying to only one application during bug season, followed by one application of defoliant at the end of the season.

Those two things combined to greatly reduce the need for pilots. The result is that now all the (surviving) pilots are old and retiring, and there are very few coming along to replace them. The few replacements are critically under trained, and of course lack experience as well, leading to stupid accidents like this one.

Those are both results of events thirty years prior. Kind of makes one wonder what is happening today that will have profound effects on business in the next thirty years?