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Old January 17, 2019, 11:48 AM
Dien Rice Dien Rice is online now
Onwards and upwards!
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,710
Default Not so knowledgeable about futures, but...

Originally Posted by Samir View Post
Are there any coffee drinkers here? If yes, you may have noticed there are new coffee shops opening up every day all over the U.S. and in fact, all over the world. While this is happening, coffee beans are trading at the lowest prices seen in the last 14 years. There are some valid reasons for this such as Brazil, which is the largest producer of Arabica coffee beans, had a bumper crop last year and produced more coffee than it ever did. When supply outstrips demand, prices fall but this time the prices have fallen so much that farmers have been forced to abandon their crops in droves.

I think all that is about to change. Brazil has been experiencing dry weather and there are good chances o El Niņo hitting this year which could be devastating. Also on the currency end, the Dollar seems to be retreating which is good because a strong dollar hurts most commodities.

So how do I plan to make money out of this? I just bought one contract of Coffee Futures for close to $3000. Current price of coffee is 102.30. If it goes to 103.30, that's $375 profit. I expect my money to at least double by the end of this month and quadruple by the end of Feb. You can follow the price of Coffee here:

If I am wrong, I will lose $3000. No risk = No reward. Educated risk = Big reward.
Hi Samir,

I don't have experience with futures, but I know something about options...

I do know that with options, you can definitely make 10% to 20% in a day. You can also lose that amount (or more) too!

If you do the math, you can definitely potentially quadruple your money in a month. (In fact, if you made 20% a day, you would more than quadruple your money in 8 trading days, which is a little over 1.5 weeks. If you made 10% a day, you would quadruple your money in 15 trading days, which is 3 weeks. There are just 5 trading days a week, since the market isn't open on weekends.)

But... you can lose a lot (or even all) of your money too!

I'll just say, it's easy to lose money... For people who are interested, but don't want to take the "plunge" yet, you can paper trade, and see how you would have done if you did invest, without "real" risk...

It's not exactly the same, but I still feel it is worth doing, as you will increase your understanding by doing it...

- Dien

Last edited by Dien Rice : January 17, 2019 at 12:16 PM. Reason: Spelling
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