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Old October 5, 2001, 10:42 PM
Dien Rice
 
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Default The stock market "bubble" and the following "crash"... and how it comes from a change in beliefs....

Hi Ricky,

Thanks, that was a great post.... :)

A couple of other examples of the "relativity" of money came into my mind as I read your post....

One of the most common must be in the area of antiques. It's true that "one person's trash is another person's treasure".... An old telephone which one person thinks is only worth a dollar or two at the most, could be worth hundreds of dollars to someone else.... What it's worth is what people believe it is worth (and are willing to pay for it).

The other example was the high-tech stock market "bubble".... This really started with Netscape.

When Netscape floated, it was a company with no profits. However, Jim Clark had convinced everyone that the internet was the future (I think he was right), and that Netscape would be leading the way, which would turn into massive profits. People believed it, and the price of Netscape skyrocketed. Netscape was "worth" what people believed it was worth.

A lot of other high-tech companies then followed Netscape's example, where anything involved with the internet was thought to be worth a lot. The market valuation of these companies were what they were simply because that's what people believed.

Then last year, the market came crashing down. I think the "spark" seems to have been the court ruling against Microsoft. When that happened, it seemed to trigger the fall of all the high-tech stocks. Negative sentiment overcame the optimism, and what people thought high-tech stocks were "worth" changed dramatically. It was just a matter of change in belief.

However, the more evidence there is in favor of a "belief," the more likely it's going to spread and continue. And the less evidence there is in it's favor, the more likely that belief will probably collapse.... I think the high-valuation of high-tech stocks had a decreasing amount of evidence in favor or it, as internet companies struggled to make profits. And as more time went by without profits, the beliefs holding those prices up were gradually being eroded away....

I haven't read "The Celestine Prophecy" but I'll try to find a copy and check it out. Thanks Ricky, I really enjoyed your post! :)

- Dien
 


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