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Old February 18, 2020, 01:49 PM
Dien Rice Dien Rice is online now
Onwards and upwards!
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,588
Default I'm scared to death

Originally Posted by GordonJ View Post
So, the Coronavirus.

Still taking that cruise? The vacation to Asia? No big deal or life changing?
Hi Gordon,

I've been more recently looking at the big picture...

In the big picture, the economy of China has ground to a halt.

For example, these charts give the pollution this year (yellow line) versus its 6-year average (blue line) - for various cities in China.

It looks like great news... But it isn't.

Why great news?

Because pollution has fallen off a cliff...

But why is that bad?

Because it's an indication that the factories in China have effectively shut down.

Or check this out... Shipping of oil from the Middle East to China...

As you can see, oil shipping to China has plummeted.

(VLCC stands for "very large crude carriers.")

With factories and transport shut down, it's not needed.

(Source: )

The shutting down of factories in China is causing havoc further down the supply chains in other countries, including the USA. Companies can't get needed components.

Due to shipping times, it will take a while for the effect to ripple through the global system.

Many people are saying the coronavirus will cause a stock market crash, and worldwide recession...

Here's one example:

Coronavirus Will Trigger an Epic Stock Market Crash, Warns ‘Godfather’ Analyst

None of the markets reflect this yet. A quick look at the S&P 500 and things look quite benign. But on this one, I think some kind of crash will probably happen in the next year or so.

Hopefully the Covid-19 coronavirus won't "break out" in a big way into North America, Europe, Australia, or New Zealand (where most of our audience here comes from) - or anywhere else.

But the big new worry right now is Japan. When you count the cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan, Japan has more cases of coronavirus than all other countries combined outside of China.

Japan has 542 positive cases of coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, and 65 cases domestically. A total of 607 positive cases of coronavirus.

Which is a surprise... You would imagine if any country could contain it, Japan could.

It's still not even close to China, with 72,436 positive cases of coronavirus (and 1,868 killed). Many people believe China is underreporting the number of cases.

Personally, I'm scared to death. I have a pregnant wife... The last thing I want is for her to be affected.



Last edited by Dien Rice : February 18, 2020 at 02:05 PM.
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